美股-房地产行业-全美房地产投资信托协会（NAREIT）的REIT世界会议

www.jpmorganmarkets.comNorth America Equity Research15 November 2019 REITsHere’s what went down at NAREIT's REITworldREITsAnthony Paolone, CFA AC(1-212) 622-6682anthony.paolone@jpmorgan.comBloomberg JPMA PAOLONE <GO>J.P. Morgan Securities LLCMichael W. Mueller, CFA AC(1-212) 622-6689michael.w.mueller@jpmorgan.comBloomberg JPMA MUELLER <GO>J.P. Morgan Securities LLCNikita Bely(1-212) 622-0695nikita.bely@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCHong Zhang(1-212) 622-6416hongliang.zhang@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCSarah Tan(1-212) 622-1041sarah.tan@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCDhiraj K Kapgate(9122) 6157-3354dhiraj.kapgate@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan India Private LimitedSee page 62 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.We attended NAREIT’s REITworld conference in Los Angeles this week and met with 51 management teams and participated in six property tours/events. The mood in most meetings and in the hallways was upbeat. Underlying fundamental trends for the large majority of companies in the space are pretty solid given how long the economic expansion has been going and job growth that has been consistent, even if notched down a little this year. Interest rates are low and stocks have posted total returns of ~25% YTD. This makes for a good overall operating environment for the space, and most companies are now in a position to use their stock currencies to fund accretive investment activity.In our view, we continue to see the set-up for REITs as being good because of the visibility we see for ~4% earnings growth in 2020 with above-average dividend yields in a low-rate environment. We think investors should have exposure to the space. This picture does remain dependent, however, on how the broader market plays out. For instance, we have seen a significant reversal in relative outperformance for this group (and within the group) in the last 1-2 months as tariffs/trade became less of a perceived risk and the prospects of renewed global growth emerged. But recall that for the first nine months of 2019, lower interest rates and downward revisions to S&P 500 earnings expectations helped fuel 600+ bps of REIT outperformance. This relationship is unlikely to change.We walk through high-level takeaways for the various property types below, followed by recaps from our management meetings and some of the tours.2North America Equity Research15 November 2019Anthony Paolone, CFA(1-212) 622-6682anthony.paolone@jpmorgan.com Property Type TakeawaysResidential: 2020 may be about ops and demand holding up as supply won’t help apartment REITs. Operations and bringin