世界经济论坛-2025年全球航空可持续发展展望（英）

Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025W H I T E P A P E RM A R C H 2 0 2 5Images: Getty ImagesDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.© 2025 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.ContentsForeword 3Executive summary 51 Cautious optimism 72 Sustainability risks 102.1 Technology challenges 112.2 Policy and geopolitical challenges 192.3 Sustainability challenges 253 Non-sustainability risks and trends 263.1 Policy and geopolitical risks 273.2 Economic risks 283.3 Social issues 313.4 Technology risks 32Conclusion 34Appendix: Methodology 35Contributors 36Acknowledgements 36Endnotes 37Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 20252This year marks an important moment for the aviation sector’s journey to net zero. Updated national action plans on how countries intend to decarbonize aviation need to be submitted to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) by the next general assembly in September. As part of those decarbonization plans, the first few sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates in Europe came into force in January – with increasingly tough targets up to 2030. Over the coming months, more SAF plants will look to make their final investment decision and potentially progress to construction. Expectations for economy-wide decisions at COP30 in October are also high, with the aviation and clean fuels agenda playing an increasingly prominent role in multilateral events, including the G7 and G20. The actions that industry and governments across the world take this year will be vital to ensure the aviation sector remains on the right flight path to meet internationally agreed targets, with no countries or regions left behind in the quest for sustainability. The global vision agreed through ICAO means that, within five years, the carbon intensity of jet fuel will have to reduce by 5%. Looking ahead 25 years, ICAO’s long-term “aspirational goal” is net-zero international aviation by 2050. However, the sector is also poised to grow significantly by that date. Aviation executives are increasingly facing trade-offs between sustainability and growth, and both these are affected by the constantly evolving geopolitical context, with increased conflicts, looming trade barriers and recent elections across the globe affecting air traffic, policy, investment and feedstock flows. These events are impacting the dynamics between countries and the opportunities for col