2025斯坦福新兴技术评论：十项关键技术及其政策影响的报告（英）

THE STANFORD EMERGING TECHNOLOGY REVIEW 2025A Report on Ten Key Technologies and Their Policy ImplicationsCO-CHAIRSCondoleezza Rice John B. Taylor Jennifer Widom Amy ZegartDIRECTOR AND EDITOR IN CHIEFHerbert S. LinStanford University Stanford, CaliforniaMANAGING EDITORMartin GilesCONTENTSFOREWORD 4EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10INTRODUCTION 18The Role of Science and Technology in Advancing National Interests 18 Policy for Science and Technology 19Ten Science and Technology Fields 1901 Artificial Intelligence 2102 Biotechnology and Synthetic Biology 3903 Cryptography 5304 Lasers 6505 Materials Science 7706 Neuroscience 9107 Robotics 10308 Semiconductors 11509 Space 12710 Sustainable Energy Technologies 14111 Crosscutting Themes and Commonalities 156Key Observations About How Technologies Evolve over Time 157Common Innovation Enablers and Inhibitors 16412 Technology Applications by Policy Area 174Economic Growth 174National Security 176Environmental and Energy Sustainability 177Health and Medicine 179Civil Society 180CONCLUSION 182LEADERSHIP 184ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 1884government offices are likely to set trajectories for the United States and the world for years to come. Now more than ever, understanding the landscape of discovery and how to harness technology to forge a better future requires working across sectors, fields, and generations. Universities like Stanford have a vital role to play in this effort. In 2023, we launched the Stanford Emerging Technology Review (SETR), the first-ever collaboration between Stanford University’s School of Engineering and the Hoover Institution. Our goal is ambitious: transforming tech-nology education for decision makers in both the public and private sectors so that the United States can seize opportunities, mitigate risks, and ensure the American innovation ecosystem continues to thrive. This is our latest report surveying the state of ten key emerging technologies and their implications. It harnesses the expertise of leading faculty in science and engineering fields, economics, international relations, and history to identify key technological developments, assess potential implications, and highlight what policymakers should know. This report is our flagship product, but it is just one element of our continuous technology education campaign for policymakers that now involves nearly one hundred Stanford scholars across forty depart-ments and research institutes. In the past year, SETR experts have briefed senior leaders across the US government — in Congress and in the White House, Commerce Department, Defense Department, and US intelligence community. We have organized and participated in fifteen Stanford programs, including multiday AI and biotechnology boot camps for con-gressional staff; SETR roundtables for national media and officials from European partners and allies; and In every era, technological discoveries bring both promise and risk. Rarely, however, has the world experienced technological change at the spe