全球能源安全情景2025（英）

Generated by AIShell Scenariosshell.com/scenariosThe 2025 Energy Security ScenariosEnergy andartificial intelligence2Shell ScenariosThe 2025 Energy Security ScenariosThe rise of artificial intelligence 3AI and the evolution of the energy system 3Key observations 5New directions in the 21st century 7A mixed global picture 7Technology trends 8National response archetypes 10Three security scenarios 12Artificial intelligence and economic growth 13Three security scenarios: Surge 16Three security scenarios: Archipelagos 19Three security scenarios: Horizon 20Changes to the energy system 21Energy demand 23Future oil demand 25The future for natural gas 26LNG in three scenarios 27Low-carbon fuels 28The rise of renewables 33Electrification in final energy 34A nuclear renaissance? 35Carbon management and emissions 37Land-use change 43Policy, the emissions gap and temperature 45Meeting the Paris goal 47Final thoughts 49Technology timelines in The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios 50References and acknowledgements 51Legal disclaimer 56ContentsShell ScenariosThe 2025 Energy Security Scenarios3Shell ScenariosThe 2025 Energy Security ScenariosWhen Shell published The Energy Security Scenarios in March 2023, the focus of the world was on high energy prices, with the cost of electricity at record levels in much of Europe. ChatGPT was four months old at the time and while it is barely the tip of the artificial intelligence (AI) iceberg, it has nevertheless been a game-changer in terms of public awareness of a new technology wave.Faced with the question of what the rise of AI might mean for the energy system, we again make use of scenario analysis. At Shell, scenario analysis plays a key role in creating context and growing understanding around energy system, technology, geopolitical and social trends. Scenarios are an exploration of how the world could possibly evolve under different sets of assumptions.The process of creating scenarios involves considering different possible futures, some of which may seem unlikely or even surprising. The value to Shell of producing scenarios is to help senior management think about the long-term challenges the business could face. In this way, scenarios may influence the company’s strategy – as one of many inputs. But scenarios are not expressions of Shell’s strategy or business plan. Shell scenarios are informed by data, constructed using models, and they contain insights from leading experts in relevant fields.The rise of artificial intelligenceAI and the evolution of the energy systemThe influence of AI is being felt in many areas, but over the next 20 to 30 years it could bring significant change to the energy system.• Production of modules (such as solar photovoltaic panels, batteries and heat pumps) for the energy system could accelerate as AI improves manufacturing and delivers ever more complex assembly line production of components.• Autonomous systems are appearing in vehicles. When v