世界经济论坛-全球经济未来：2030年的生产力（英）

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030W H I T E P A P E RJ A N U A R Y 2 0 2 5In collaboration with AccentureImages: Getty Images, UnsplashDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.© 2025 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.ContentsForeword 3Executive summary 41 Introduction: Understanding productivity 61.1 The productivity slowdown 61.2 Key drivers of future productivity 82 Scenarios 112.1 Framework 112.2 Four futures for productivity in 2030 133 Industry exposure and implications 173.1 Mapping industry exposure 173.2 Implications across selected industries 194 Strategies for the future 23Appendices 25A1 Methodology 25Contributors 27Endnotes 28Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 20302ForewordThe global economic backdrop is one of weak growth, complex geoeconomics and deepening policy uncertainty. The question is no longer whether the economic landscape is going to evolve, but how decision-makers can respond to these shifts. Can they harness this wave of change to build more innovative, inclusive, sustainable and resilient economies and businesses? To help decision-makers understand and anticipate change, the World Economic Forum and Accenture are launching this new series of publications entitled Global Economic Futures. The series uses scenario analysis as a tool to understand future trends, vulnerabilities and opportunities, and to identify strategies that can shape better outcomes. This first edition of the series explores the future of productivity, a critical topic at the root of challenges around boosting economic growth and living standards. The paper sets out four scenarios exploring the interaction of two core drivers of productivity: technology and human capital. It also presents a data-driven assessment of how businesses in different sectors may be affected. The aim is not to predict where the world will be in 2030. Instead, the series encourages leaders to think critically, creatively and purposefully about the future and to drive action on the key issues. The paper offers a set of actionable strategies to help businesses and governments not only adapt to change, but also shape it. We hope this paper and series will be a useful resource for decision-makers as they navigate an increasingly complex global landscape.Aengus Collins Head, Economic Growth and Transformation, World Economic ForumKathleen O’Reilly Senior Managing Director, Accent