英国国家经济和社会研究所-月度GDP追踪器-英国经济增长势头保持健康，但增速放缓（英）

“While today’s figures came in slightly weaker compared to the upbeat performance we have seen over the first half of the year, the strong start to 2024 will likely extend into the second half of the year. However, high-frequency indicators are signalling a relative slowdown in momentum for the remainder of the year. All eyes will undoubtedly be on the upcoming Autumn Statement, especially for any policies critical to delivering sustained long-term economic growth – an agenda promised by the Labour Government.” Hailey Low Associate Economist, NIESR NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker UK's Growth Momentum Remains Healthy But Pace Slows Hailey Low 11 September 2024 National Institute of Economic and Social Research niesr.ac.uk Monthly GDP Tracker September 24 - 2 - Main points • Monthly GDP flatlined in July, after experiencing flatlined growth in June. This monthly figure was supported by growth from services output which was offset by falls in production and construction sectors. GDP grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months to July. This growth was consistent with our forecast published last month and mainly driven by Services sectors. • The UK was the fastest-growing economy among the G7 in the first half of this year, which could be attributed to ‘catch-up’ effects after experiencing a shallow technical recession last year. However, higher-frequency indicators and survey data highlight signs of slowing down – while business activity continues to expand, we can expect the pace of growth to be slower compared what we have seen since the beginning of the year. • In that light, we forecast GDP to grow by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2024, driven by the services and construction sectors. As the new government's first fiscal event approaches, we hope policymakers will implement policies that not only sustain the momentum we have seen but also foster robust and sustained economic growth across the country. Figure 1 - UK Monthly GDP National Institute of Economic and Social Research niesr.ac.uk Monthly GDP Tracker September 24 - 3 - Economic setting Compared to our previous GDP tracker, published in August, the outturn for GDP growth in September came out flatlined compared with our forecast of 0.1 growth for the month of July. This figure followed the flatlined GDP growth in June, driven by marginal growth in services output, which was offset by falls in production and construction outputs. Looking at the broader picture, real GDP grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months to July relative to the previous three-months. Taken together with the encouraging performance in Q2, it suggests that the United Kingdom’s economy is on course for sustained economic recovery after the shallow technical recession experienced late last year. Capitalising on this momentum, alongside higher-frequency data, we now forecast GDP to grow by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2024. That said, these numbers remain broadly cons