国际清算银行-新兴市场经济体的信贷和资源配置：回顾20年来利率的下降（英）

BIS Bulletin No 91 Credit and resource allocation in EMEs: taking stock of two decades of falling interest rates Ryan Banerjee, Aaron Mehrotra and Fabrizio Zampolli 5 September 2024 BIS Bulletins are written by staff members of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. The authors are grateful to Claudio Borio, Gaston Gelos, Benoît Mojon, Bryan Hardy, Hyun Song Shin and Tom Rosewall for valuable comments, Berenice Martinez and Sjur Nilsen for excellent analysis and research assistance, Pongpitch Amatyakul and Enisse Kharroubi for providing firm-level productivity data and to Nicola Faessler and Maja Viscek for administrative support. The editor of the BIS Bulletin series is Hyun Song Shin. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2024. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN: 2708-0420 (online) ISBN: 978-92-9259-786-3 (online) BIS Bulletin 1 Credit and resource allocation in EMEs: taking stock of two decades of falling interest rates Key takeaways • Since interest rates declined in the early 2000s, credit expanded strongly and its allocation changed significantly in emerging market economies (EMEs). • Being largely spared by the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), EMEs have seen credit increasingly flowing to the construction and real estate sectors at the expense of manufacturing. Due to lower productivity growth in the housing sector, this shift has coincided with decreasing growth rates. • Strong credit growth concentrated in a few sectors has also been associated with greater dispersion of productivity across firms, suggesting less efficient resource allocation. The end of “low for long” – the extended period of low global interest rates – has shone a spotlight on the macroeconomic implications of the significant rise in private non-financial debt-to-GDP ratios as well as the larger share of credit allocated to the housing sector since the early 2000s. This Bulletin highlights three growth implications of these developments for EMEs, consistent with previous research. First, there is evidence that private sector credit has a diminishing effect on growth once it reaches a high level. While most EMEs are still in the region where further expansion of private credit would boost growth, others could already be at a turning point where additional credit may become a drag on growth. Second, although the reallocation of credit towards real estate is consistent with a greater demand for housing services as EMEs have grown richer, it weighs on growth because productivity gains are smaller in this sector. Third, where credit growth has been strong and concentrat