Barclays_Global_Portfolio_Manager_s_Digest_Data_Dependence

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.* This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research AnalystAll research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other required disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks in thispublication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live.FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 36.FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 36.FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 37.Global Portfolio Manager's DigestData DependenceWe provide context and perspective on research across regionsand asset classes, this week highlighting our key takeawaysfrom 2Q earnings season and what to expect for US Equities;our views on the upcoming rate decision from the ECB; and ourUSD/JPY xxcy basis outlook heading into year-end.• 2Q Earnings Season in Review: 2Q24 results were generally good but surprise was modest asconsensus came closer to actual EPS. Next-quarter revisions are concerning, however, as baseeffect tailwinds abate and rising macro concerns come into play. Further, 3Q24 EPS has beenrevised down nearly 5% since May and Y/Y growth is expected to fall by more than half vs. thisreporting season. Base effects are partly to blame but we think rising macro uncertainty isalso in play, considering 3Q24 has seen substantial cuts while further-out estimates remainessentially untouched. Big Tech EPS growth is also expected to continue decelerating nextquarter. Overall, FY estimates are holding up better than historical trends would imply. Theresiliency of FY24 estimates is still solely attributable to Big Tech; without these six stocks,negative revisions to SPX EPS would have been worse than usual at this point in the year.Note that although revisions to NTM EPS for SPX ex-Big Tech inflected to positive in May, therolling nature of NTM estimates incorporates more optimistic further-out estimates with eachsuccessive reporting season, creating an upward bias.• ECB Preview: At its 12 September meeting, we expect that the Governing Council (GC) willconclude that the updated macro outlook warrants an easing of the level of policy restriction,and will