商业策略：有效决策指南（英文）

BUSINESS STRATEGYOTHER ECONOMIST BOOKSGuide to Analysing CompaniesGuide to Business ModellingGuide to Business PlanningGuide to Economic IndicatorsGuide to the European UnionGuide to Management IdeasNumbers GuideStyle GuideDictionary of BusinessDictionary of EconomicsInternational Dictionary of FinanceBrands and BrandingBusiness ConsultingBusiness EthicsBusiness MiscellanyChina’s StockmarketDealing with Financial RiskFuture of TechnologyGlobalisationGuide to Financial MarketsHeadhunters and How to Use ThemSuccessful MergersThe CityWall StreetEssential DirectorEssential EconomicsEssential FinanceEssential InternetEssential InvestmentEssential NegotiationPocket World in FiguresBUSINESS STRATEGYA Guide to Effective Decision-MakingJeremy KourdiTHE ECONOMIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROFILE BOOKS LTDPublished by Profile Books Ltd3a Exmouth House, Pine Street, London ec1r 0jhwww.profilebooks.comCopyright © The Economist Newspaper Ltd 2003Text copyright © Jeremy Kourdi 2003All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, nopart of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrievalsystem, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical,photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the prior written permission of boththe copyright owner and the publisher of this book.The greatest care has been taken in compiling this book. However, no responsibility can be accepted by the publishers or compilers for the accuracy of the information presented. Where opinion is expressed it is that of the author and does not necessarily coincidewith the editorial views of The Economist Newspaper.Typeset in EcoType by MacGuru Ltdinfo@macguru.org.ukPrinted in Great Britain byCreative Print and Design (Wales), Ebbw Vale A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 1 86197 459 0ContentsIntroduction1Part 1 The forces at work31 Social, cultural and commercial forces52 Ideas at work283 Pitfalls504 Rational or intuitive? Frameworks for decision-making66Part 2 Making it happen: concepts and tools for strategicdecision-making775 Making strategic decisions796 Scenario thinking1037 Strategies for growth1118 Competitive strategy1289 Customer focus13910 Knowledge and information15311 Managing finance and risk16512 Sales, marketing and brand management decisions18613 Leadership214Notes and references227Index235vThis page intentionally left blank IntroductionThe essence of the ultimate decision remains impenetrable to the observer –often, indeed, to the decider himself … There will always be the dark andtangled stretches in the decision-making process – mysterious to even thosewho may be intimately involved.John F. Kennedy, former American presidentStrategic decisions are rarely straightforward or simple. This isbecause they involve value judgments that depend to a large degreeon people’s attitudes, perceptions and assumptions. This is why somany strategic decisions turn out to be ill-j