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Ziel Home Furnishing Technology（301376） Equity Research·Company Research·Housewares 1 / 7 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] Overseas online "IKEA" sets sail and aim to become a cross-border home furnishing giant with supply chain momentum Buy (Initiation) Forecast & Valuation 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E Revenue (RMB mn) 5,455 6,110 7,385 8,653 Growth (YoY %) -9% 12% 21% 17% Net profit (RMB mn) 250 408 511 607 Growth (YoY %) 4% 63% 25% 19% EPS (RMB) 0.62 1.02 1.27 1.51 P/E (X) 39.18 22.81 18.32 15.41 Source: Wind, Soochow Securities Investment Thesis ◼ Ziel is the leading cross-border e-commerce platform in the home furnishing category, with its main sales in developed countries in Europe and America. Since its inception, Ziel has adhered to the brand route and operated under a brand model. By 2023, Ziel had established three major brands: SONGMICS, VASAGLE, and FEANDREA, corresponding to categories of home furnishing, furniture, and pet products, respectively. In 2022, furniture and home furnishings accounted for 48% and 35% of its revenue. Ziel primarily sells its products through online channels such as Amazon to developed countries such as Europe, the United States, and Japan, with these three regions contributing 56%, 41%, and 1% of its revenue in 2022, respectively. ◼ Cross-border expansion is a major trend in the consumer goods industry, with robust advantages of domestic consumer goods supply chain expanding outward. Cross-border e-commerce has maintained high growth in recent years. According to iResearch Consulting, China's cross-border e-commerce export scale reached RMB6.6tn in 2022, with a CAGR of 24.5% from 2017 to 2022. And the CAGR from 2022 to 2025 is expected to reach 16.4%. In the future, domestic consumer goods brands are likely to become a major trend in the consumer industry development, by leveraging their supply chain advantages and e-commerce operation capabilities. Furthermore, as the penetration rate of overseas e-commerce continues to increase, the demand for cross-border e-commerce is expected to continue growing. ◼ Core edges of Ziel includes: 1) enjoying a certain degree of brand recognition, 2) establishing overseas warehouses and logistics systems, 3) strong supply chain management capabilities. ◼ Brand Barrier: Ziel owns three major brands including SONGMICS, VASAGLE, and FEANDREA, with a certain brand reputation accumulated over years of operation. Branding is an important consideration for consumers when purchasing home products. Brand advantages should bring stable sales advantages and product premiums. ◼ Logistics Barrier: As of the end of 2023, Ziel has 300,000+ square meters of self-owned overseas warehouses in Europe and America and has established overseas logistics systems. For the home furnishing category, establishing a self-owned logistics system is an important competitive advantage. ◼ Supply Chain Barrier: Ziel has laid out in domestic home furnishing industry clusters, utiliz