2024全球展望（英）

BlackRock InvestmentInstituteFOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, LATIN AMERICA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA. FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.2024GlobalOutlookGrabbing the wheel:putting money to workBIIM1223U/M-3266814-1/1622024 outlookFOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, LATIN AMERICA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.The new regime of greater macro and market volatility has resulted in greater uncertainty and dispersion of returns. We believe an active approach to managing investment portfolios will carry greater rewards as a result. This is a sea change from relying on the one-and-done asset allocations that worked so well during the Great Moderation, the long period of stable growth and inflation. That period is over. We believe this is a time to grab the investing wheel – and seize the opportunities the new regime has on offer.Philipp HildebrandVice Chairman —BlackRockSummary Setting the sceneContext is everythingStructural shiftThemesManaging macro riskSteering portfolio outcomesHarnessing mega forces23-434 5-7567Jean BoivinHead — BlackRock Investment InstituteAlex BrazierDeputy Head — BlackRock Investment InstituteVivek PaulGlobal Head of Portfolio Research —BlackRock Investment InstituteMega forcesDigital disruptionLow-carbon transitionA fragmenting worldFocus – Global diversificationFocus – Real assetsTactical playbookViews summary8-108910 11121314-15Higher rates and greater volatility define the new regime. It’s a big change from the decade following the global financial crisis. Ever-expanding production capacity allowed central banks to stabilize economies and shore up growth through loose monetary policy. That helped suppress macro and market volatility, and stoked bull markets in both stocks and bonds. Investors could rely on static, broad asset class allocations for returns – and gained little advantage from differentiated insights on the macro outlook. Today, we think the flipside is true. Production constraints abound. Central banks face tougher trade-offs in fighting inflation – and can’t respond to faltering growth like they used to. This leads to a wider set of outcomes, creating greater uncertainty for central banks and investors. There’s a temptation to interpret the new regime by taking a classic business cycle view of the current environment, we believe. Markets are swinging between hopes for a soft landing and recession fears as a result. This misses the point: the economy is normalizing from the pandemic and being shaped by structural drivers: shrinking workforces, geopolitical fragmentation and the low-carbon transition. The resulting disconnect between the cyclical narrative and structural reality is further stoking volatility, we believe.Seemingly strong U.S. growth