中国取消和提高关税对美国经济和就业的影响（英）

The Economic Impact of China PNTR Repeal THE IMPACT OF CHINA PNTR REPEAL AND INCREASED TARIFFS ON THE US ECONOMY AND AMERICAN JOBS A REPORT PREPARED FOR THE US-CHINA BUSINESS COUNCIL NOVEMBER 2023 The Economic Impact of China PNTR Repeal 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary ................................................................................................ 2 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 4 2. Evolving US-China trade policy ......................................................................... 7 2.1 Lingering concerns over trade with China .................................................. 7 2.2 Unfolding of protectionist policies and China tariffs .................................. 7 2.3 The impact of previous tariff increases on the US economy ...................... 9 3. PNTR tariff escalation scenarios and their economic impacts ......................... 11 3.1 US tariff-only scenario: moving Chinese exports to Column 2 rates ........ 12 3.1.1. US tariff-only scenario: macroeconomic impacts............................... 13 3.1.2. US tariff-only scenario: US national-level industry impacts ............... 16 3.1.3. US tariff-only scenario: US state-level impacts .................................. 18 3.2 Chinese retaliation scenario: Reinstating pre-WTO rates ......................... 21 3.2.1. Chinese retaliation scenario: macroeconomic impacts ...................... 22 3.2.2. Chinese retaliation scenario: US national-level industry impacts....... 24 3.2.3. Chinese retaliation scenario: US state-level impacts .......................... 27 3.3 Implications for bilateral and global trade patterns ................................. 30 4. Conclusion....................................................................................................... 32 Appendix: Oxford Economics’ modelling framework to derive economic impacts of trade tariffs .......................................................................................................... 34 The Economic Impact of China PNTR Repeal 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The US has reaped substantial benefits from increased trade with China in the two decades since China was granted Permanent Normalized Trade Relations (PNTR) status upon accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).1 The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in 2018 using Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act reversed the decades-long trend of greater US-China trade integration and, according to multiple assessments, including a previous study by Oxford Economics in 2021, hurt US output and jobs. USCBC commissioned Oxford Economics to build upon our previous study and estimate the economic impact of an escalation of existing tariff measures in the form of revoking China’s PNTR status, a scenario that has been put forward by some in Congress and by three of the leading Republican presidential candidates. In this report, we