半导体行业深度报告：海外观察系列十一：从艾睿和大联大等分销商，看半导体复苏

Equity Research·Industry Research·Semiconductor Semiconductor Industry Research 1 / 7 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] Semiconductor recovery observed from distributors such as Arrow and WPG Outperform (Maintain) Key words: # reversal effect Investment Thesis ◼ The semiconductor industry has hit bottom, with multiple signals indicating recovery likely to be seen within 2023. The current semiconductor cycle started to decline in mid-2021, with weak demand, accumulated inventory, and financial loss of fabless factories. The time and space of adjustment is relatively in place. From multiple verifications at foundries, probe & packaging factories, and terminal demand, we expect the cycle to bottom out and rise within 2023. ◼ Distributors are an important bridge between foundries and terminals, providing unique research and tracking value. Upstream electronic device suppliers find it difficult to economically match the diverse needs of downstream, giving rise to the distributor mode. From the perspective of supply chain, distributors provide flexibility in circulation, technical services, and shortfall material searches. We propose a research framework of "looking at analog from distributors", focusing on revenue and inventory. ◼ Changes in the competitive pattern of foundries drive the integration of distributors, and the domestic concentration ratio is likely to improve. In 2021, Arrow, WPG, and Avnet had the highest revenues, with Arrow's revenue of USD34.477bn, accounting for ~18% of the market. The industry concentration ratio has gradually increased, with the proportion of Top 4 distributors' revenue in Top 50 distributors' revenue gradually increasing. Market share changes of distributors are related to the changes in the competitive pattern of foundries bound, while mergers and acquisitions among distributors have slowed down. The mainland manufacturers have a low market share, and companies such as Shenzhen Best of Best Holdings, Shannon Semiconductor Tech, Shanghai Yct Electronics Group, Nanjing Sunlord Electronics Corp, Shenzhen Huaqiang Industry, and Wuhan P&S Information Tech are important indicators. ◼ Revenue of distributors is basically in line with the changes of foundries, with profit changes slightly lagged. Historical data shows that the revenue of distributors is basically in sync with that of original manufacturers, though profits tend to fluctuate with a slight lag. Reviewing changes in the stock price of distributors, we found that the price is strongly correlated with its revenue, which in turn is linked to economic conditions. This further confirms our view that distributors are a barometer of the industry. ◼ Inventory changes are decisive indicators for prosperity. The bottoming out of distributor inventories is of great significance. Historically, in 2Q08, 2Q11, and 4Q18, Arrow and Avnet began to cut inventories, and after two-to-four-quarter adjustment of supply and demand, they entered the ri