2023年1月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：行业支持政策持续推出，债券发行量开始回温

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2023 年 2 月 17 日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：梅芷菁 申学峰 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：1 月份 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比减少40.02%，与 2022 年 2 月相比减少 1.66%，基本持平。百城新建住宅平均价格同比下跌 0.03%，连续两个月出现同比下跌。 土地成交价款：12 月份全国土地成交价款为 1574.98 亿元，较上年同期的 3236.81 亿元下降 51.34%，房地产行业新土地项目投资明显减少。 政策：1 月份，人民银行、银保监会建立首套住房贷款利率政策动态调整机制；主要银行信贷工作座谈会上，人民银行、银保监会继续强调，各家银行要运用好保交楼专项借款、保交楼贷款支持计划等政策工具。地方层面，多地节后下调首套房贷利率，继续积极出台购房支持政策，包括提供购房补贴、放松限购、降低房贷首付比例、提高房贷额度、放宽房贷资格限制等。 重 点 房 企 ：1 月份 百强房 企 操盘 销售 金额 同比下 降32.5%；招商蛇口、滨江集团等房企为旗下公司提供担保；大名城、远洋集团获银行大额授信。 债券发行与到期：1 月份房地产行业共发行债券 846.72 亿元，偿还债券 1059.22 亿元，通过债市净融资-228.43 亿元。 信用事件与利差：1 月份有 4 只债券违约，6 只债券展期。无主体和债券的信用级别被下调。1 月末兴业房地产行业债券信用利差（中位数）较上月末下降 15.12BP。 总结与展望：需求方面，疫情管控结束后社会经济活动逐步恢复正常，各地在经济提振方案中指出要鼓励住房消费，未来新建商品房需求有望边际改善。供给方面，土地市场持续低迷或将影响未来一到两年的市场供给量。防范化解风险仍将作为房地产行业的重要任务，人民银行支持改善优质房企资产负债表，可以预期未来优质房企信用会比较稳定，同时仍需关注尾部房企的违约风险与房地产行业的继续分化。 相关研究报告： 1. 《多家房企实施股权增资，行业资产负债状况将改善 ——2022 年 12 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.1.11 2. 《2022 年 11 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：房地产企业股票融资放开，行业财务风险有望降低》，2022.12.20 3. 《2022 年 10 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房销售再显颓势，行业债券信用利差走阔》，2022.11.15 行业支持政策持续推出，债券发行量开始回温 ——2023 年 1 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China February 17th, 2023 Summary In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has declined by 40.02% year-on-year in January, and decreased by 1.66% compared to February 2022. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has decreased by 0.03% year-on-year, which is the second consecutive month of year-on-year decline. In terms of real estate land purchase, the transaction value of land in December was 157.498 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.34% from 323.681 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year, and the investment in new land projects in the real estate industry decreased significantly. In terms of policies, the People's Bank of China (PBC) and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) established a dynamic mechanism on mortgage rates for first-time homebuyers. The PBC and CBIRC jointly held meeting with major banks on credit work and stressed that policy instruments such as the special lending and loan support scheme for delivery of homes should be used effectively. At the local level, many places have lowered interest rates on first-home mortgages after the spring festival. The support policies for housing purchases have been constantly introduced in various regions, including providing subsidies for housing purchases, relaxing purchase restrictions, reducing the down payment ratio of housing loans, increasing the amount of housing loans, relaxing the restrictions on the qualification of housing loans, etc. In terms of key real estate companies, the sales amount