2022中报点评：逆变器出货高增，2023年储能加速放量

Sungrow Power Supply Co. Ltd.（300274） Equity Research·Company Research·PV Equipment 1 / 11 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 1H22 Review: strong growth of inverter shipments; accelerated momentum of energy storage in 2023 Buy (Maintain) Forecast & Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue (RMB mn) 24,137 37,431 71,861 96,979 Growth (YoY %) 25% 55% 92% 35% Net profit (RMB mn) 1,583 2,816 5,514 7,176 Growth (YoY %) -19% 78% 96% 30% EPS (RMB) 1.07 1.90 3.71 4.83 P/E (X) 123.54 69.44 35.46 27.25 Investment Thesis ◼ Event: Sungrow reported revenue of Rmb12.281bn (+49.59% yoy) and NP of Rmb0.9bn (+18.95% yoy) in 1H22. In 2Q22, Sungrow achieved sales of Rmb7.714bn (+58.60% yoy, +68.87% qoq) and NP of Rmb0.49bn (+32.21% yoy, +19.13% qoq). S&M expense ratio increased by 2.9pct yoy and 1.4pct qoq, mainly due to the substantial increase of after-sale maintenance fees and warranty provision. Financial expense ratio decreased by 4.9pct yoy and 5.2pct qoq, thanks to the FX gain from RMB/USD depreciation. ◼ High growth of inverter shipments with increasing contribution from residential products. In 1H22, revenue of PV inverter business reached Rmb5.933bn (+65% yoy), with shipments of 31GW (+77% yoy) and a global market share of 34% (+1~2pct yoy). 0.37mn of inverters were distributed by Sungrow's global channel, including 0.305mn of residential products. GPM of inverters declined by 5.64pct yoy to 32.51%, mainly due to the rising cost of transportation fees and power chips. We expect its GPM to marginally improve as the strong growth of overseas and distributed PV market in 2H22 should make a larger contribution and the price hike of inverters since 2Q22 begins to manifest in 3Q22. Thanks to the fast introduction of domestic IGBT suppliers, Sungrow's use of domestic IGBT chips increased swiftly, supporting the fast growth of inverter shipments. We expect its use of domestic IGBT chips to reach 30%~40% in 3Q22. For shipments, we expect 70GW (+49% yoy) in 2022 and 120-130GW (+70% yoy) in 2023. Share and number of distributed PV inverter are likely to reach 40% and 1mn in 2022, of which 0.8mn (1.6mn in 2023) will be used for residential projects. ◼ Booming demand of energy storage supported high growth of ESS revenues. In 1H22, Sungrow's Energy Storage System (ESS) business achieved sales of Rmb2.386bn (+159.33% yoy) and shipments of 2Gwh (15,000 of residential ESS), with a global market share of 11%. GPM of ESS business declined by 2.86pct yoy to 18.37% in 1H22, mainly due to the rising cost of transportation fee and battery price. We expect its margin to improve in 2H22 given the quotation linkage between ESS and lithium price as well as the fast growth of residential ESS. Guided by "No Battery" strategy, the company deeply cooperates with CATL and locks battery supply in advance to ensure inverter shipments. We expect Sungrow's ESS shipments to reach 5-6Gwh (+100% yoy) in 2022, including 0.1mn of residential ESS. In 2023, we expect its t