策略深度报告：日本90s：资产负债表衰退与股市泡沫

1 / 30 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 Equity Research·Strategy Research·In-depth research Strategy Research In-depth research 20220926 [Table_Main] Japan in the 1990s: Balance Sheet Recession and Stock Market Bubble Viewpoint ◼ The deterministic factors of Chinese economy are similar to those of Japanese economy in the 1980s and 1990s. ① China and Japan are very similar during rapid economic development stage, including but not limited to: 1) Before the economy boomed, the foundation for industrialization was laid thanks to the “Whole Nation System”; 2) Exports became an important driver of economic growth in the process of globalization; 3) Both China and Japan belonged to the East Asian cultural circle where people pursue stability, illustrated by high savings rates. ② China is also similar to Japan in terms of In terms of GDP growth rate, per capita GDP, export structure, population structure and land price dynamics, the 1980s and 1990s. ◼ Japan’s economic bubble started with the "Plaza Accord" and ended with the "Lost Decade". ① The rise of Japan after World War II led to intensified competition between Japan and the United States, and the huge trade deficit triggered the trade war. ② In 1985, the "Plaza Accord" was signed. The appreciation of Japanese Yen and the depreciation of US Dollar became the beginning of Japan's bubble economy. ③ Monetary and fiscal policies became excessively accommodative, and surplus liquidity flew into the stock market and real estate market, leading to asset bubbles. ④ U.S. economic hegemony consolidated due to the signing of the Plaza Accord and the Louvre Accord. ◼ The economic bubble burst in 1990s, named as the "lost Decade". ① Balance Sheet Recession: Enterprises shrank their liabilities, leading to a liquidity trap as the need for capital from the real economy decreased. ② Falling birth rate and aging led to shrinking workforce, unsustainable tax growth, and high government debt. Japan was at risk of collapse due to a prolonged deterioration in its fiscal condition. ③ The failure of monetary and fiscal policies led to high saving rate and insufficient long-term demand. Within this low-desire society, even if the government adopted strong monetary and fiscal stimulus policies, a long-term economic recession couldn’t be prevented. ◼ Post-bubble stock market: financial and real estate declined, export differentiated, consumption downgraded, technology bubble boomed. ① The population decline was accelerating, and the bank credit crisis emerged, leading to a negative ten-year absolute return. ② Export-oriented industries were polarized that technological advantages outweighed cost advantages. Industries with high precision and high running-in degree expanded their export shares and stock prices have risen. ③ "Sanshari" and "Otaku Culture" were prevalent; the status of women has improved; the sales of goods have increased negatively, and the importance of service consum