全球生物制药行业-全球生物制药业：2022年美国付费者调查的启示

1See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Global Equity ResearchJune 2022Global BioPharma – 2022 US Payer Survey TakeawaysJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCUS BiotechnologyCory Kasimov AC212-622-5266cory.w.kasimov@jpmorgan.comUS Major & Specialty PharmaEkaterina V. Knyazkova, CFA212- 622-9576 ekaterina.v.knyazkova@jpmorgan.comChristopher Schott, CFA AC212-622-5676christopher.t.schott@jpmorgan.comChristopher Neyor212- 622-0334 christopher.z.neyor@jpmorgan.comEU Pharma & BiotechRichard Vosser AC(44-20) 7742-6652richard.vosser@jpmorgan.comJames D Gordon(44-20) 7742-6654james.d.gordon@jpmorgan.comHardik Parikh, CFA212- 622-2875hardik.k.parikh@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcGavin Scott212-622-0579gavin.scott@jpmorgan.comTiffany Sun212-622-8964tiffany.sun@jpmchase.comZain Ebrahim(44-20) 7134-1423 zain.ebrahim@jpmorgan.comJohn Priestner(44-20) 7742-9923 john.priestner@jpmorgan.com2Key TakeawaysMacro industry perspectiveOverall, our 2022 survey suggests similar trends to prior surveys with payers looking to continue to aggressively manage formularies/access. This has translated to annual net price reductions for much of the space over the past several years – a trend we should see continuing going forward. Payers remain focused on managing net price increasesPayers see changes to the industry’s rebate structure as less likely in the near-term although most still anticipate major changes within the next 5 yearsPayers also expect any sizable price cut to Medicare Part D would translate to net price reductions on the commercial sideBiosimilars should play an increasing role in cost management over timePayers evaluating biosimilars on a case by case basis with two most significant considerations being relative costs and strength of clinical data (as compared to our 2020 survey where cost was viewed as the primary consideration for usage) Most payers also expect a gradual ramp up for biosimilar volumesThose in our survey expected biosimilars to capture 30-40% of the market within 5 years of launch across a range of products and therapeutic categories3Key TakeawaysSpecific therapeutic areasFor diabetes, the survey results suggest continued price erosion of 5-10% over the next five years. This is generally consistent with our diabetes pricing assumptions and market expectations for declining price in this category. >60% of payers expect Mounjaro price premium to hold going forward.For obesity, survey results suggest coverage will increase over time from one-third of payers today to >90% in two years. However, there is still work to do to increas