海康威视(002415)稳定是内核，碎片化是方向，渠道价值显著低估

Hikvision（002415） Equity Research·Company Research·Computer Equipment 1 / 37 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] Hikvision, a security industry leader with steady growth, is undervalued with its extensive channels as the market becomes more fragmented Buy（Initiation） Forecast & Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue (RMB mn) 81,420 94,897 113,617 138,470 Growth (YoY %) 28% 17% 20% 22% Net profit (RMB mn) 16,800 19,600 23,694 28,724 Growth (YoY %) 26% 17% 21% 21% EPS (RMB) 1.78 2.08 2.51 3.04 P/E (X) 23.33 20.00 16.54 13.65 Investment Thesis ◼ Although Small & Medium Business Group (SMBG) may lose growth, Public Business Group (PBG) & Enterprise Business Group (EBG) will grow steadily, and overseas & innovative businesses will grow rapidly. 1) Industry perspective: we expect the CAGR of security market to reach about 7% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. 2) Corporate perspective: PBG is unlikely to lose growth momentum as industry expands and capital investment increases. SMBG may lose growth momentum because of the pandemic shock and lackluster economy. EBG will grow steadily because the mainly customers (SOEs and giant companies) are relatively immune to the pandemic shock. Overseas and innovative businesses will grow rapidly. Under pessimistic scenario, we expect Hikvision to maintain a growth rate of 14.14%, which can be higher if pandemic subsides and economy recovers. ◼ Intensive R&D investment was the key factor for Hikvision’s successful transformation. Hikvision’s development has gone through three phases: standardized products manufacturer (2001-2010), semi-standardized and semi-customized solution provider (2009-2015), customized industry digital transformation solution provider (2016-present). Intensive R&D investment was the key factor for Hikvision’s successful transformation. In the past 20 years, the proportion of R&D expenses to revenue and R&D personnel to headcount increased from 5% & 28% to 10% & 48% respectively. R&D achievements: 1)Mutual promotion of software and hardware. 2)Combination of universal and dedicated software platform, algorithm and service. ◼ Customization and fragmentation are inevitable trends in intelligent security industry. Hikvision’s extensive channels are undervalued. Intelligent security has been gradually applied to various kinds of scenarios (education, building and household), while products become more customized and market becomes more fragmentated. In addition to existing industry leaders, players in intelligent security market also include technology giants and AI algorithm companies. Compared with these competitors, Hikvision understands industrial demands better and completes different projects more efficiently due to its extensive channels. ◼ Earning Forecast & Rating. We expect the EPS to be 2.08/2.51/3.04 rmb respectively in 2022/2023/2024, with corresponding PE ratios at 20/17/14x respectively. We initiate with a BUY rating. ◼ Risks: Security industry growt