2022年3月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房成交面积下滑，房企债券融资继续净流出

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2022 年 4 月 11 日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：申学峰 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：3 月份 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比减少47.33%，成交量仍明显低于往年同期。百城新建住宅平均价格同比上涨 1.72%，涨幅较上月回落 0.17 个百分点。 房地产贷款：3 月份 103 个监测城市的首套房贷平均利率为 5.34%，二套房贷平均利率为 5.60%，分别较上月下降 13个、15 个 BP。房贷平均放款周期为 34 天，较上月缩短 4 天。 政策：“两会”期间政府工作报告提出要因城施策促进房地产业良性循环和健康发展，财政部负责人表示新一轮房产税改革试点暂缓，多个金融相关部委密集表态强调防范化解房地产金融风险。多个城市放宽购房政策以促进住房消费，部分地区出台措施纾解房企困难。 重 点 房 企 ： 3 月 份百 强 房 企销 售 操 盘金 额 同 比下 降52.7%；多家房企获得银行并购融资额度；多家房企对外新增提供担保，且担保余额占净资产比例偏高。 债券发行与到期：3 月份房地产行业共发行债券 887.37 亿元，通过债市净融资-127.35亿元。2020年 9月至 2022年 3月，国内房地产行业债券存量规模压降了约 3349.58 亿元。 信用事件与利差：3 月份有 9 只债券违约、3 只债券展期。无主体和债券的信用级别被下调。3 月末兴业房地产行业债券信用利差（中位数）较 2 月末上升 8.06BP，AA 级的信用利差向 AAA、AA+级靠拢。 总结与展望：商品房销售减少影响了房企回款进度，一些房企资金链承受了很大压力。尽管近期购房政策一直在放宽，但当前购房者有观望情绪，且疫情反复削弱了居民购房能力，相关政策的效果可能有限。因此对于部分存量项目积压、负债较高的房企来说，未来销售回款可能仍面临需求端的压力。销售回款对现金流支撑有限的情况下，如果房企又面临债务的集中到期，就仍可能出现资金链断裂。 相关研究报告： 1.《2022 年 2 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房成交面积下降，4 家主体信用级别下调》，2022.3.10 2.《2022 年 1 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房成交面积下降，房企债市融资持续净流出》，2021.2.16 3.《2021 年 12 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：个人住房贷款发放加快，9 家主体信用级别下调》，2021.01.12 商品房成交面积下滑，房企债券融资继续净流出 ——2022 年 3 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China April 11th, 2022 Summary In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has declined by 47.33% year-on-year in March, which was still significantly lower than in the same period of previous years. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has increased by 1.72% month-on-month, and the increase was down 0.17 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of real estate loans, the average interest rate of first-home loans in “103 cities” was 5.34% in March, and the average interest rate of second-home loans was 5.60%, down 13BP and 15 BP from the previous month respectively. The average lending cycle in “103 cities” is 34 days, 4 days shorter than the previous month. In terms of policies, the government work report proposed to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry by implementing policies based on the city. The Ministry of Finance said that the new round of real estate tax reform pilots has been suspended. A number of financial-related ministries and commissions have intensively expressed their emphasis on preventing and resolving real estate financial risks. Several cities have relaxed home purchase policies to boost housing consumption. Some areas have introduced measures to ease the difficulties of real estate companies. In terms of key real estate companies, the sales amount of TOP100 real estate companies in March has decreased by 52.7% year-on-year. A number of real estate companies have obtained bank M&A financing quotas. A number of