美股制药行业-美国制药公司2022年展望：主要争议和主要观点

1See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. North America Equity ResearchDecember 2021PharmaceuticalsChris Schott, CFA AC(1-212) 622-5676christopher.t.schott@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCUS Pharma 2022 Outlook Key Controversies and Top IdeasChristopher Neyor (1-212) 622-0334christopher.z.neyor@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCEkaterina Knyazkova(1-212) 622-9576Ekaterina.v.knyazkova@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC2Overall PositioningMajor Pharma  On valuation, the Major Pharma sector remains at its steepest discount to the broader market in the past 15+ years and we see an opportunity for this gap to narrow While the 2026-2029 patent cycle has been top of mind for investors, pipeline progression and business development across the group leave us with only a modest decline in top line for the sector over this timeframe. Further, we see an upward bias to numbers based on a mix of further pipeline de-risking/capital deployment. Admittedly, pricing will likely remain controversial but potential drug price and Medicare Part D reform in 2022 could lift the overhang on the group and actually drive a re-rating of the sector’s multiple Our recommendations are skewed towards names that we believe have the longest runways for EPS growth (LLY) or those trading at a steep discount to peers (ABBV) Favorite ideas: ABBV, LLYAnimal Health The sector exits the pandemic with improved companion animal health fundamentals and signs of a recovery within the livestock market. Along these lines, we view Animal Health’s longer-term fundamentals as the most attractive in our coverage and see a clear upward bias to sector estimates. Favorite idea: ZTSSpec Pharma We still do not see a compelling reason to broadly own the group. That said, we have several interesting stories trading at attractive valuations despite what we view as well positioned assets.  Favorite idea: HZNP3Major Pharmaceuticals: Improving Fundamentals Not Reflected in Valuation4US Major Pharma: Improving Fundamentals Disconnected from ValuationWe are constructive on US Major Pharma with solid core product and new launch trendsexpected to support mid-single-digit volume-driven top-line growth over the next 5-7 yearsPositives:We see a healthy growth outlook for the sector over the next 5 years. US Pharma faces fewmajor patent expirations through 2026, and we are forecasting a ~5% sales CAGR over the next fiveyears.A recent new product cycle and ongoing pipeline success represent potential upside driversto our near- and long-term estimates. Broadly speaking, pipelines across t