美股房地产行业-来自2021年11月全美房地产投资信托协会的亮点

abGlobal Research | 12 November 2021Strong economic backdrop driving strong demand/rent growthThis year’s NAREIT REITworld event was highlighted by a continuation of the optimistic outlook shared by companies & investors that was prevalent at the June NAREIT conference. As a result of the strong backdrop, many meetings were focused on the outlook for 2022 and identifying risks, with most focused on inflation and other macro factors. Within our coverage, the industrial REITs remain very bullish as strong US retail sales growth via both brick and mortar and accelerating ecommerce, coupled with inventory shortages across the supply chain, continue to drive robust demand for warehouse space. This remains particularly acute in infill, last mile locations where land is scarce, entitlements are more challenging, and tenants remain focused on further reducing the time to deliver goods to the end consumer.Multifamily and retail net lease strong; office turning the cornerIn multifamily the recovery has played out faster than expected on the back of reopening, reduced rents and/or high concessions, and a challenging single family home market. EQR is currently seeing double digit % increases on renewals with above average retention rates, setting the company up for a strong 2022. In retail net lease, the transaction market remains very healthy while challenged tenant industries such as movie theaters have largely resumed paying rent. In office, the delta spike pushed out the return to office but 2022 should see a stronger recovery for the sector. Retail has turned the corner driven by leasing according to KIM, FRT, REG, & KRGRetail REITs should see FFO continue to pick up from occupancy gains & improving collections. KIM noted that although the pandemic validated the relevancy of last mile community centers, the new normal of hybrid work environments should sustain their elevated importance. REG stated vacancies in centers that rarely have openings have driven pricing power. We think that is evidenced by the acceleration in its leasing spreads from 0.2% in 1Q'21 to 5.1% in 3Q'21. FRT's lifestyle centers are demonstrating their significance though robust office & residential demand, providing the company confidence to guide to FFO growth of 5%-10% in 2023/2024. On retailer supply chain issues, KRG noted that the major players have been able to get in front of the pressure. Sustainability of self storage demand a key topic with EXR, PSA, LSI, & NSAConversations with the self storage operators focused on the near-term & long-term. Momentum was sustained through October 2021 as EXR put up a sequential acceleration of 10 bps in occupancy as other saw modest decelerations. Further, rates remained strong as LSI noted street rates were up 31% in October. It expects street rates to end the year up ~15%. This combination of elevated occupancy and strong rates should set up another robust year in 2022. Plus, accretive acquisitions and a growing non same store p