土耳其和俄罗斯冲突合作的逻辑（英）

SWP Research Paper Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Daria Isachenko Turkey and Russia The Logic of Conflictual Cooperation SWP Research Paper 7 October 2021, Berlin Abstract ∎ Relations between Turkey and Russia are a puzzle to many in the West. How sustainable is the relationship? What is it grounded on? And what can the West learn from it? ∎ Central to the relationship is its bilateral nature. Relations between Ankara and Moscow are based on the mutual recognition of security interests. The resulting dynamics have shaped Turkish-Russian coopera-tion since the 1990s and can be observed in the current partnership in Syria. ∎ Mutual regard for the other’s security concerns is facilitated by the prospect of collaborative projects that promise greater advantages than continued conflict. ∎ Trust is of secondary importance, as is the quality of personal relations between the Turkish and Russian presidents. More important is the interdependence between Russia and Turkey. ∎ The potential for confrontation or cooperation between Ankara and Moscow in regional conflicts depends on current priorities rather than past rivalries. The form and extent of their collaboration are determined not by which side of the conflict they are on, but by their respective motives. SWP Research Paper Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Daria Isachenko Turkey and Russia The Logic of Conflictual Cooperation SWP Research Paper 7 October 2021, Berlin All rights reserved. © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2021 SWP Research Papers are peer reviewed by senior researchers and the execu-tive board of the Institute. They are also subject to fact-checking and copy-editing. For further information on our quality control pro-cedures, please visit the SWP website: https:// www.swp-berlin.org/en/ about-swp/quality-management-for-swp-publications/. SWP Research Papers reflect the views of the author(s). SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4 10719 Berlin Germany Phone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-200 www.swp-berlin.org swp@swp-berlin.org ISSN (Print) 2747-5123 ISSN (Online) 1863-1053 doi: 10.18449/2021RP07 Translation by Imogen Taylor (English version of SWP-Studie 16/2021) Table of Contents 5 Issues and Conclusions 7 The Geostrategic Context of Turkish-Russian Relations 7 NATO’s Significance to Turkey 9 Turkish Shifts towards Russia 12 The Bilateral Dimension of Turkish-Russian Relations 12 Trade Relations 14 Energy Projects 15 The Myth of Compartmentalisation 17 Syria: What’s New in Turkish-Russian Relations under Putin and Erdoğan? 17 Moscow’s Interests in Syria 18 Ankara’s Interests in Syria 20 The Roots of the 2015 Turkish-Russian Crisis 21 Advantages of Normalisation 25 The Case of the S-400 28 Conclusions and Recommendations 30 Abbreviations Dr Daria I