两年半后的土耳其总统制：体制和政治概述（英文）

SWP Research Paper Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Sinem Adar and Günter Seufert Turkey’s Presidential System after Two and a Half Years An Overview of Institutions and Politics SWP Research Paper 2 April 2021, Berlin Abstract ∎ Turkey’s new Presidential System has failed to realise the goals that it was said to achieve with its introduction despite the disapproval of half the population. ∎ Contrary to the ruling party’s claims in favour of the new governance system, two and a half years after its introduction, parliament is weaker, separation of powers is undermined, the judiciary is politicised, institu-tions are crippled, economic woes are mounting and authoritarian prac-tices prevail. ∎ Despite the almost unlimited and unchecked power that the new system grants to the President over institutions, his space for political manoeuvre is, surprisingly, narrower than it was in the parliamentary system. ∎ Providing the otherwise divided opposition a joint anchor of resistance, the Presidential System unintentionally breathed life into the inertia of Turkey’s political party setting. ∎ The formation of splinter parties from the ruling party, primarily address-ing the same conservative electorate, alongside the changing electoral logic with the need to form alliances to win an election, poses a serious challenge to the ruling party and its leader – the President. ∎ Despite the oppositional alliance’s electoral victory in 2019 local elec-tions, it is at the moment unclear whether the forming parties share a common vision for steps towards democratic repair. ∎ Together with the institutional havoc caused by the Presidential System, the blurry outlook of the opposition requires caution about an easy and rapid positive transformation. While the European Union should be realistic in regard to expectations towards democratic reform, it should also strike a balance between cooperation in areas of mutual benefit and confronting Ankara when necessary to protect the interests of the Euro-pean Union and its member states. SWP Research Paper Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Sinem Adar and Günter Seufert Turkey’s Presidential System after Two and a Half Years An Overview of Institutions and Politics SWP Research Paper 2 April 2021, Berlin All rights reserved. © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2021 SWP Research Papers are peer reviewed by senior researchers and the execu-tive board of the Institute. They are also subject to fact-checking and copy-editing. For further information on our quality control pro-cedures, please visit the SWP website: https:// www.swp-berlin.org/en/ about-swp/quality-management-for-swp-publications/. SWP Research Papers reflect the views of the author(s). SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4 10719 Berlin Germany Phone +49 30 880