乌兹别克斯坦的转型（英文）

SWP Research Paper Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Andrea Schmitz Uzbekistan’s Transformation Strategies and Perspectives SWP Research Paper 12 September 2020, Berlin Abstract ∎ The presidential transition in Uzbekistan represents a novel development in the post-Soviet space. Regime insider Shavkat Mirziyoyev has succeeded in initiating change without provoking destabilisation. His reform pro-gramme aims to liberalise the economy and society while leaving the politi-cal system largely untouched. ∎ Implementation is centrally controlled and managed, in line with the country’s long history of state planning. Uzbeks accept painful adjust-ments in the expectation of a rising standard of living. And the economic reforms are rapidly creating incontrovertible facts on the ground. ∎ Uzbekistan has also made significant moves towards political liberalisa-tion, but remains an authoritarian state whose institutional framework and presidential system are not up for discussion. Rather than democrati-sation, the outcome of the transformation is more likely to be “enlightened authoritarianism” backed by an alliance of old and new elites. ∎ Nevertheless, there are good reasons for Germany and Europe to support the reforms. Priority should be placed on the areas most relevant for fostering an open society: promoting political competition, encouraging open debate, fostering independent public engagement and enabling genuine participation. SWP Research Paper Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Andrea Schmitz Uzbekistan’s Transformation Strategies and Perspectives SWP Research Paper 12 September 2020, Berlin All rights reserved. © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2020 SWP Research Papers are peer reviewed by senior researchers and the execu-tive board of the Institute. They are also subject to fact-checking and copy-editing. For further information on our quality control pro-cedures, please visit the SWP website: https:// www.swp-berlin.org/en/ about-swp/quality-management-for-swp-publications/. SWP Research Papers reflect the views of the author(s). SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4 10719 Berlin Germany Phone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-200 www.swp-berlin.org swp@swp-berlin.org ISSN 1863-1053 doi: 10.18449/2020RP12 Translation by Meredith Dale (English version of SWP-Studie 13/2020) Table of Contents 5 Issues and Recommendations 7 The Reformer and His Programme 7 An Insider Takes the Reins 9 Uzbekistan under Karimov 11 The Reform Agenda 15 Domestic Political Anchoring 15 Reorganisation of the Security Apparatus 17 Cadre Policy and Governance 20 Public Mobilisation 24 Foreign Policy Dimensions of the Reforms 28 Perspectives and Implications for Cooperation 28 Uzbekistan on Course for Reforms 29 The Limits of Transformation 31 Recomme