新兴市场-投资策略-新兴市场展望与策略中国引领复苏而美国滞后，这是长期持有新兴市场固定收益债券的时机

Global Emerging Markets Research06 August 2020 Emerging Markets Outlook and StrategyWindow of opportunity for long EM fixed income as China leads the recovery while the US lagsEmerging Markets StrategyLuis Oganes AC(44-20) 7742-1420luis.oganes@jpmorgan.comJonny Goulden(44-20) 7134-4470jonathan.m.goulden@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcSee page 35 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.www.jpmorganmarkets.comKey topics There is a window of opportunity for EM assets as China leads and the US lags, keeping rates ultra-low while growth indicators are picking up. We stay with small OWs across EM local rates, FX, and both sovereign and corporate credit. In FX, shift some risk into lower beta, with a CNY OW. EM assets do not have strong directionality in August but volatility tends to rise.Macro developments Globally, few countries escaped historic slowdowns in 2Q20 due to pandemic-driven shutdowns and mobility restrictions.  The immediate impediment to a complete recovery relates to COVID-19, with healthcare policy; infection resurgence and stop-start recoveries remain a risk. EM (core) inflation in 1H20 has not followed the dramatic fall in GDP, particularly given the destruction of demand. We may see a pause in EM central bank action, but signs suggest that this pause is temporary.Top trading themes EM local markets - FX: We hold a small OW in our model portfolio, with an environment of CNY and EUR appreciation versus the USD likely to benefit EM FX. We shift some risk into OW CNY to reduce the beta of our overall exposure, and remain OW Latam via MXN. In EMEA EM, we focus on relative value, with OW RUB against UW ZAR and TRY, and OW CZK against UW PLN. EM local markets - Rates: We continue to express our structural OW duration position via medium-yielders. We move OW Malaysia alongside lower-yielding positions of OW China and Hungary against UW Thailand and Chile. In high yielders, we stay OW Indonesia (with reduced weight), Russia and Mexico, partially offset by UW Brazil. EM sovereigns: We stay modestly and tactically OW EM sovereign credit, having recently added single-B risk in Africa, with OWs in Nigeria and Tunisia. We expect a re-widening to year-end, with our end-2020 EMBIGD spread target of 450bp implying flat returns for the full year. EM corporates: We moved OW with a tighter CEMBI spread target of 325bp, expecting a 5.2% return for 2020. Robust technicals and more benign default expectations offer higher beta opportunities in credits from Brazil, China HY property, Ukraine, Georgia, and longer duration bonds.ContentsEM top trade recommendations......................3Executive Summary ........................................4EM Technicals...............................................10EM Local Markets Strategy ...........................12EM Hard Currency Strategy ..........................20Appendix ......................................................25Spreads