新冠病毒疫情对全球航空旅行行业初步影响报告

EconomicsCOVID-19Initial impact* assessment of the novel CoronavirusIATA Economics120th February 2020* This is a preliminary scenario. It is likely to change as the situation evolves and evidence builds.EconomicsPrevious disease outbreaks have peaked after 1-3 months and recovered pre-outbreak levels in 6-7 monthsSource: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics102030405060708090100110120-3-2-10123456789101112Impact of past disease outbreaks on aviationIndex (crisis month=100)Months before and after the start of the crisisSARS (2003)Asia Pacific Airlines RPKsAvian Flu (2013)Asia Pacific Airlines RPKsMERS Flu (2015)RPKs to, from and within South KoreaAvian Flu (2005)RPKs to, from and within South-East AsiaSARS (2003)North American Airlines RPKsSARS (2003)China Domestic MarketRPKsEconomics2003 SARS Outbreak:RPKs declined by 5.1%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018Asia-Pacific Airlines’ Passenger Kilometers flown (RPKs)Billions of passenger kilometers flown20-year trend: CAGR 7.4%SARS caused the only annual decline in Asia-Pacific traffic in almost two decadesSource: IATA Economics using data from IATA StatisticsEconomicsSARS experience may underestimate today’s impact because China’s economic size is now much greaterSource: IATA Economics using data from the IMF WEO, UN, WTTC4%5%10%5%16%13%39%18%Share in World Economy Share in Trade (Exports + Imports)Share in ManufacturingShare in Travel& TourismChina’s Contribution to World Economy20022018EconomicsSince SARS China and other Asia Pacific airlines’ share in worldwide RPKs have risen from 27% to 35%3%10%24%25%36%22%26%27%6%11%5%5%20022019Regional Share of RPKs (% of worldwide RPKs) Asia-Pacific excludingChina DomesticNorth AmericaEuropeMiddle-Eastern & AfricaLatin AmericaChina DomesticSource: IATA Economics using data from IATA StatisticsEconomicsChina’s domestic market has become twice as important for total Asia Pacific airlines’ RPKsAsia-Pacific airlines RPKs 2002Asia-Pacific airlines RPKs 2019Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA StatisticsEconomicsAsia-Pacific airlines are most exposed to Chinese markets, but others impacted if COVID-19 effects widenSource: IATA Economics using Jan-Nov 2019 data from DDS59%46%10%7%6%1%21%9%3%2%5%1%0.2%79%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%ChinaAsia Pacificexcluding ChinaMiddle EastEuropeAfricaNorth AmericaLatin America% of base revenues from International Asia Pacific (excl.China)% of base revenues from International China% of base revenues from Domestic ChinaAirlines' region of registration% of total base revenues, YE Nov 2019Base revenues: excluding revenues from ancillaries, baggage fees, etc. EconomicsJanuary data from China indicates a sharper decline than SARS outbreak in the first month after the outbreak60708090100110120130140150-15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567Daily China Passenger Numbers (Domestic+International) 201820192020Start of the Chinese New Year HolidayDays