未来五年航空旅行前景（英文）

COVID-19Outlook for air travel in the next 5 yearsBrian PearceChief Economist113th May 202040506070809010011012020162017201820192020202120222023Index, 100 in 2019Global GDP and global RPKs, indexed to equal 100 in 2019Global GDPGlobal RPKsCurrent baselineAir travel may recover more slowly than most of economyGlobal RPKs recover 2019 levels in 2023, 2 years behind GDP recoverySource: IATA/Tourism Economics, Air Passenger Forecasts, April 20202019 levelGovernments have provided unprecedented supportWage subsidies, grants and loans should allow strong GDP reboundSource: IATA Economics using data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, April 20200510152025303540South AfricaIndiaMexicoSaudi ArabiaRussiaTurkeyArgentinaChinaIndonesiaBrazilKoreaCanadaSpainUnited StatesAustraliaFranceUnited KingdomJapanItalyGermany% of GDPGovernment support for economy in 2020, % of GDPSpending and tax measuresLoans, equity injections, guaranteesCentral banks have also injected cash into economiesThe US Federal Reserve has added cash equivalent to 12% of US GDPSource: IATA Economics using data from Refinitiv Datastream3,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,00020162017201820192020US$ billionCentral bank assets, US$ billion+$2.5 trillion(12% of US GDP)US Federal ReserveEuropean Central BankBank of JapanBusiness confidence has rebounded in ChinaAs lock-down relaxed in China ‘V-shaped’ rise of business confidence1520253035404550556050 = no change expectedBusiness confidence (PMI) in manufacturing and services ChinaUSGermanySource: IATA Economics using data from MarkitSolving health challenge critical for international travelUntil vaccine, opening borders to travel requires fall in COVID-19 risk Source: IATA Economics using data from the World Health Organization (WHO)0%5%10%15%20%1-Apr5-Apr9-Apr13-Apr17-Apr21-Apr25-Apr29-Apr3-May7-MayNew COVID-19 cases, % of total cases, 7-day moving averageRussiaIndiaBrazilUSJapanChinaChina domestic air travel lagging business confidence Rise in flights with return to work & VFR, but discretionary travel weakSource: IATA Economics analysis based on WHO data, and data provided under license by FlightRadar 24. All rights reserved.010000200003000040000500006000070000800000%10%20%30%40%50%60%China domestic flights, COVID-19 new casesDaily rate of change in Covid-19 Cases,7-day moving averageNumber of flights per weekDomestic flightsNew cases COVID-19Average trip length will fall sharply Domestic markets open first and initial preference for short-haul tripsSource: IATA/Tourism Economics, Air Passenger Forecasts, April 20201,8501,9001,9502,0002,0502,10020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Average trip length, kilometersAverage trip length, kilometersFall of 8.5%International RPKs will lag domestic air travel marketsInternational air travel may not recover 2019 levels until 2023-24Source: IATA/Tourism Economics, Air Passenger Forecasts, April 2020405060708090100110120130201620172018201920202021202220232024Indexed to equal 100