新冠疫情6月数据和经修订的全球航空旅行前景（英文）

EconomicsCOVID-19June data and revised air travel outlookBrian PearceChief Economist128th July 2020Air travel upturn continued in June but surprisingly weakGlobal RPKs -86.5% yoy in June vs -94.1% at April low point Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics and Markit Purchasing Managers Index010020030040050060070080025303540455055Jan-19Feb-19Mar-19Apr-19May-19Jun-19Jul-19Aug-19Sep-19Oct-19Nov-19Dec-19Jan-20Feb-20Mar-20Apr-20May-20Jun-20RPKs per month, billionNet balance of respondents, 50 = no growthGlobal RPKs and global business confidence, monthlyGlobal RPKsGlobal business confidence(PMI)June upturn narrowly based on domestic marketsChina domestic travel growing but little growth on international marketsSource: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%Jan-19Feb-19Mar-19Apr-19May-19Jun-19Jul-19Aug-19Sep-19Oct-19Nov-19Dec-19Jan-20Feb-20Mar-20Apr-20May-20Jun-20% change year-on-yearGrowth in RPKs by region of registrationChina domestic -35.5%US domestic-80.1%All regions international-96 to -98%Border restrictions have not yet been widely relaxedThe few travel corridors (e.g. EU) only source of international air travelSource: IATA Timatic (www.iatatravelcentre.com)Current Border Restrictions, as of 24 JulyLoad factors remain at all-time lows in most regionsJune domestic load factors 62.9% but international only 38.9%All-time Jun low*All-time Jun high*IndustryL. AmericaAsia PacificEuropeN. AmericaMiddle EastAfricaDomestic China0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Jun 2020Jun 2019Passenger load factors (% of available seat kms, actual)57.6%66.6%63.8%55.5%52.4%35.7%16.2%84.4%83.3%82.2%87.4%88.9%76.4%71.1%*Data from 1990 onwards69.5%84.8%Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA StatisticsTraffic not growing as fast as airlines adding capacityCash burn continuing as load factors still below breakeven-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%Jan-19Feb-19Mar-19Apr-19May-19Jun-19Jul-19Aug-19Sep-19Oct-19Nov-19Dec-19Jan-20Feb-20Mar-20Apr-20May-20Jun-20% change year-on-yearDomestic RPKs and ASKs, % yoyCapacity growthTraffic growthSource: IATA Economics using data from IATA StatisticsUnexpectedly weak demand a growing restart problemAirline flights and schedules show faster rebound expectedSource: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics, DDS, FR24 and SRS Analyser-100%-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%April-20May-20June-20July-20August-20% change year-on-yearGlobal RPKs and ASKs, % change year-on-yearBased on bookingsBased on flightsBased on schedulesBusinesses are confident GDP growth will rise sharplyBut business travel on hold so this will not be an immediate boostSource: IATA Economics using data from Markit1015202530354045505560Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Net balance of sespondents, 50 = no growthBusiness confidenceChinaUKUSGermanyConsumer confidence remains much weakerLeisure travel unlikely to recovery without confidence restoredSource: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics607080901