法国预测与国际信息中心-能源和财政冲击：重新评估产业竞争力（英）

HighlightsWe build a novel dataset of sector-level energy prices to reassess the role of energy costs in industrial performance after the post-COVID recovery and the war in Ukraine.Focusing solely on energy prices overlooks the crucial influence of domestic demand, which is heavily shaped by fiscal policy.Expansionary fiscal measures can stimulate short-run industrial output by boosting domestic sales.Competitiveness gains from lower energy prices can be offset by demand-boosting fiscal policy, while contractionary policies can partly soften the impact of higher energy costs.Energy and Fiscal Shocks: Reassessing Industrial CompetitivenessNo 2025-19 – December 2025Working PaperCarl Grekou, Thomas Grjebine & Florian Morvillier CEPII Working Paper Energy and Fiscal Shocks: Reassessing Industrial CompetitivenessAbstractEnergy price shocks never occur in isolation: their impact is shaped by the broader macroeconomic context, in particular by governments' fiscal stance. This paper investigates how two key forces-energy price shocks and demand stimuli induced by fiscal policy-affect industrial performance in advanced economies, and shows that their effects depend critically on trade exposure. Using sector-level data for 30 countries over the period 1978-2022, we find that rising energy prices reduce manufacturing value added through both cost and demand channels, with more persistent effects in less open sectors. In contrast, demand-led fiscal expansions generate more complex dynamics: while boosting domestic sales, they simultaneously weaken external competitiveness. On average, a 1% increase in domestic demand leads to a 1.8% decline in manufacturing exports within three years. The overall effect on value added depends on the degree of trade openness - it is positive in the short term for sheltered sectors, but turns negative after two years in globally integrated ones.KeywordsEnergy Prices, Demand Shocks, Industry, Competitiveness.JELQ41, Q43.Working Paper© CEPII, PARIS, 2025Centre d’études prospectives et d’informations internationales 20, avenue de Ségur TSA 10726 75334 Paris Cedex 07contact@cepii.fr www.cepii.fr – @CEPII_Paris Press contact: presse@cepii.frCEPII Working PaperContributing to research in international economicsCEPII (Centre d’Études Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales) is a French institute dedicated to producing independent, policy-oriented economic research helpful to understand the international economic environment and challenges in the areas of trade policy, competitiveness, macroeconomics, international finance and growth.EdItoRIAl dIRECtoR: AntoInE BouëtVISuAl dESIgn And PRoduCtIon: lAuRE BoIVInISSN 2970-491XDecember 2025To subscribe to The CEPII Newsletter: www.cepii.fr/KeepInformedAll rights reserved. Opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) alone.CEPII Working PaperEnergy and Fiscal Shocks: Reassessing Industrial CompetitivenessEnergy and Fiscal Shocks: Reassessing Industrial Competitiv