CEPR-特朗普第二届政府的经济后果：初步评估（英）

The Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary AssessmentRAPID RESPONSEECONOMICS6“ 22Edition :The Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration:A Preliminary Assessment2nd EditionWITH SUPPORT OF CEPR PARIS FOUNDING PARTNERSCEPR PRESSCentre for Economic Policy Research187 boulevard Saint-Germain75007, Paris, France 2 Coldbath SquareLondon EC1R 5HL, UKTel: +44 (0)20 7183 8801Email: cepr@cepr.orgWeb: www.cepr.org ISBN: 978-1-912179-99-2Copyright © CEPR PressThe Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration:A Preliminary Assessment2nd EditionEdited by Gary Gensler, Simon Johnson, Ugo Panizza and Beatrice Weder di MauroCENTRE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH (CEPR)The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) is a network of almost 1,900 research economists based mostly in European universities. The Centre’s goal is twofold: to promote world-class research, and to get the policy-relevant results into the hands of key decision-makers. CEPR’s guiding principle is ’Research excellence with policy relevance’. It was founded in the UK in 1983, where it is a Charity, and in November 2019 CEPR initiated the creation of an Association under French law, in order to provide a vehicle for an expansion in France. The members of the Conseil d’Administration of the Association are identical to the UK Board of Trustees.CEPR is independent of all public and private interest groups. It takes no institutional stand on economic policy matters and its core funding comes from its Institutional Members, projects that it runs and sales of publications. Because it draws on such a large network of researchers, its output reflects a broad spectrum of individual viewpoints as well as perspectives drawn from civil society. CEPR research may include views on policy, but the Trustees/members of the Conseil d’Administration of the Association do not give prior review to its publications. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and not those of CEPR.Chair of the Board Sir Charlie BeanFounder and Honorary President Richard PortesPresident Beatrice Weder di MauroVice Presidents Maristella Botticini Antonio Fatás Ugo Panizza Hélène ReyChief Executive Officer Tessa OgdenContentsForeword ix1 The economic consequences of the second Trump administration: Key assessments 1Gary Gensler, Simon Johnson, Ugo Panizza, and Beatrice Weder di MauroPart I: Economic transformation in the United States2 The rule of law 33John Coates3 Presidential supremacy over administrative agencies 53Gary Gensler and Lev Menand4 Immigration and border policies 71Anna Maria Mayda and Giovanni Peri5 The economic effects of rapid federal downsizing 99Josh Bivens6 Will the United States continue to lead in science?* 117David Baker and Simon Johnson7 Artificial intelligence development and policy landscape 129Gary Gensler8 The (non) effect of tariffs on manufacturing employment* 145Michael R. Strain9 Fiscal policy and debt sustainability 159Anton