国际清算银行-碳密集型能源价格变化的宏观经济效应：模型比较（英）

BIS Working Papers No 1313 Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes: a model comparison by Matthias Burgert, Matthieu Darracq Pariès, Luigi Durand, Mario González, Romanos Priftis, Oke Röhe, Matthias Rottner, Edgar Silgado-Gómez, Nikolai Stähler and Janos Varga Monetary and Economic Department December 2025 JEL classification: C54, E52, H23, Q43 Keywords: climate change, monetary policy, multi-sector models, model comparison, DSGE models BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensiveenergy price changes: A model comparison∗Matthias BurgertSwiss National BankMatthieu Darracq ParièsEuropean Cental BankLuigi DurandCentral Bank of ChileMario GonzálezCentral Bank of ChileRomanos PriftisEuropean Central BankOke RöheDeutsche BundesbankMatthias RottnerBIS, Deutsche BundesbankEdgar Silgado-GómezBanco de EspañaNikolai StählerDeutsche BundesbankJanos VargaEuropean CommissionDecember 4, 2025AbstractThis paper presents a novel model comparison to examine the challenges posed by changesin carbon-intensive energy prices for monetary policy. The employed environmental mon-etary models have a detailed multi-sector structure. The comparison assesses the effectsof both a temporary and a permanent energy price increase with a particular focus onthe euro area and the United States. Temporary and permanent price shocks are bothinflationary. However, the inflationary impact of the permanent shock depends on theunderlying model assumptions and monetary policy response. The analysis also estab-lishes that these models share large commonalities in their quantitative and qualitativeresults, while also pointing out cross-country differences.JEL classification: C54 · E52 · H23 · Q43Keywords: Climate change · monetary policy · multi-sector models · model comparison · DSGEmodels∗We thank Elias Albagli, Lucas Arden, Giulio Cornelli, Burcu Erik, Helena Herber, Natascha Hinterlang,Anika Martin, Benoit Mojon, Eva Ortega, Cristina Peñasco, Dan Rees, Johannes Strobel and Niraj Verma forthe helpful comments and discussions, and seminar participants at the IMFS Conference on “Monetary andFinancial Stability and Macro-Financial Modelling”, NGFS, European Central Bank, and the ECB WorkingGroup on Econometric Modelling. This paper is a joint collaboration of the NGFS