AI吞噬世界：生成式人工智能如何重塑科技版图（英）-Benedict Evans

Benedict Evans –– December 2020AI eats the worldBenedict Evans November 2024 www.ben-evans.comBenedict Evans –– November 20242“In my lifetime, I’ve seen two demonstrations of tech that struck me as revolutionary: the GUI and ChatGPT” Bill Gates, March 2023Benedict Evans –– November 20243(Microsoft took 20 years to reach a $150bn valuation*)* $150bn market cap in summer 1996. 2024 dollars. Benedict Evans –– November 20244Source: Reuters InstituteAwareness and use of ChatGPT by country, May 2024ChatGPT reached mainstream consciousness with unprecedented speedHuge interest0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%DenmarkUSAUKArgentinaFranceJapanUsedHeard of but not usedBenedict Evans –– November 20245Source: Reuters InstituteUse of ChatGPT by country, May 2024Glass half full / half empty - lots of people have tried it, but few found it useful, so farHuge interest, limited use so far0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%DenmarkUSAUKArgentinaFranceJapanDailyWeeklyMonthlyOnce or twiceHeard of but not usedBenedict Evans –– November 20246Source: BainEnterprise use case adoption rates for generative AI, October 2023 & February 2024Enterprise software takes time, and come with early disappointmentsHuge interest, limited use so far0%10%20%30%40%50%60%ProductionDevelopment/PilotSoftwareCustomer serviceMarketingLegalKnowledge workersOperationsITSalesHRFinanceBenedict Evans –– November 20247An investment surge ahead of a proven market prompts the obvious questions “Wait a minute?”Benedict Evans –– November 20248Welcome to the hype cycle?It always takes time to reach the “Pleacom of Productity”Benedict Evans –– November 20249Beyond the noise - the next platform shiftAfter the web and smartphones, all tech gets built around generative AIPCs SQLMainframesWeb Open SourceSmartphones CloudGenerative AIBenedict Evans –– November 202410How far will this scale?How is this useful?How do we deploy this?We don’t know the answers - we’re still working out the questionsBut everything is wide openBenedict Evans –– November 202411How far will this scale?Benedict Evans –– November 202412We got these results by using more and more data and compute - will that keep working?Foundational question: will LLMs keep scaling?So far: More data + more compute = better resultsScaling will slow down? ‘Just’ more softwareScaling will keep working? LLMs do ‘everything’Benedict Evans –– November 202413“I don’t know that I would look at the training trends and extrapolate three orders of magnitude ahead blindly from today” Sergey Brin“Just give yourself the option that what’s been happening for six years now is going to continue” Kevin Scott, Microsoft CTOBenedict Evans –– November 202414A sudden blip, or something more?Is it slowing down right now?Benedict Evans –– November 202415Scaling these models has practical challenges and will take time, even before the science questions Scaling is hardLead-times for GPUs and powerHow much more training data is there?Execution & engineeringAnd will the res