通用人工智能竞争中的囚徒困境（英）

LISA ABRAHAM, JOSHUA KAVNER, ALVIN MOONA Prisoner’s Dilemma in the Race to Artificial General IntelligenceResearch ReportFor more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA4245-1.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© 2025 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, visit www.rand.org/about/publishing/permissions.RR-A4245-1iiiAbout This ReportThe purpose of this report is to represent the ongoing policy debate on the race to artificial general intelli-gence (AGI) in a mathematically neutral model that allows policymakers to compare the outcomes of alterna-tive strategies in international technology competition. The analysis assumes that outcomes are driven by a strategic choice of whether to accelerate the development of AGI based on the trade-off between the perceived benefits of securing a first-mover advantage and the perceived risks, such as developing an uncontrolled or unaligned AGI, misuse by non-experts to create new weapons of mass destruction, instability between great powers that escalates to conflict, and other threats to human survival, flourishing, and global secu-rity. Although our model does not capture the full