IMF-提高国际货币基金组织COFER数据的分析有用性（英）

Improving the Analytical Usefulness of the IMF’s COFER DataGlen Kwende and Erin NephewTNM/2025/14N O T E S & M A N U A L SN O T E S & M A N U A L STECHNICALTECHNICALTECHNICAL NOTES AND MANUALSImproving the Analytical Usefulness of the IMF’s COFER Data Glen Kwende and Erin NephewAuthorized for distribution by Bert Kroese© 2025 International Monetary FundCataloging-in-Publication DataIMF LibraryNames: Kwende, Glen, author. | Nephew, Erin, author. | International Monetary Fund, publisher. Title: Improving the analytical usefulness of the IMF’s COFER data / Glen Kwende and Erin Nephew.Other titles: Technical notes and manuals.Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2025. |TNM 2025-14. | Nov. 2025. | Includes bibliographical references.Identifiers: ISBN: 9798229004855 (paper) 9798229028370 (ePub) 9798229028219 (web PDF)Subjects: LCSH: International Monetary Fund—Statistics. | Foreign exchange reserves—Statistical methods.Classification: LCC HG3881.5.I58 K8 2025DISCLAIMER:This Technical Guidance Note should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.Recommended citation:Kwende, Glen and Erin Nephew. 2025. “Improving the Analytical Usefulness of the IMF’s COFER Data.” IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2025/14, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.Please send orders to:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesPO Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USATel: (202) 623-7430 | Fax: (202) 623-7201publications@IMF.orgeLibrary.IMF.orgbookstore.IMF.orgContentsExecutive Summary 1Introduction 3Methodology: Imputing the Unallocated Share of COFER 5Stratified Mean Imputation 6Carry-Forward and Mixed Method Imputation 8Results 10Changes to Total Reserves 10Changes to Allocated Reserves 11Changes to Unallocated Reserves 13Changes, by Currency 13Improving Analytical Usefulness and Strengthening Confidentiality 18Next Steps 18Annex I. Technical Background and History of the COFER Dataset 19Annex II. Analytical Usefulness of the COFER Dataset 21References 22Improving the Analytical Usefulness of the IMF’s COFER Data 1Executive SummaryThis technical note outlines a new methodology for the IMF’s Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) data, aimed at improving its analytical value and confidentiality. The IMF’s Statistics Department conducts the COFER survey quarterly and publishes aggregated data at the end of each quarter.1 Participation is voluntary except for Special Data Dissemination Standard Plus adherents, who are required to complete the survey and disclose their participation.COFER tracks the currency breakdown of the world’s foreign exchange reserves. At present, 149 entities report data, consisting of IMF member countries, nonmember countries or economies, and other foreign exchange reserve holding entities. The data are kept strictly confidential.