IMF-哥伦比亚能源转型计划的宏观财政影响（英）

Macro-Fiscal Impacts of Colombia’s Energy Transition Plan Marco Arena, Alberto Garcia-Huitron, Bihong Huang, Daria Kolpakova, Roberto Perrelli, Alpa Shah and Philippe Wingender SIP/2025/145IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on September 15, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/281. 2025 NOV © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/145 IMF Selected Issues Paper Western Hemisphere Department Macro-Fiscal Impacts of Colombia’s Energy Transition Plan Prepared by Marco Arena, Alberto Garcia-Huitron, Bihong Huang, Daria Kolpakova, Roberto Perrelli, Alpa Shah and Philippe Wingender* Authorized for distribution by Ding Ding November 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on September 15, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/281. ABSTRACT: This paper assesses the risks and opportunities of Colombia’s energy transition plan. Recognizing that a sharp fall in oil and coal production would weigh heavily on fiscal sustainability and regional economies, it emphasizes that a well-managed expansion of renewable energy would be essential to mitigate these effects through policies to reskill workers, protect vulnerable communities, and foster broad social support. Moreover, complementary domestic, financial, and export-oriented reforms would further mitigate the economic costs, underscoring the importance of diversification, productivity gains, and stronger competitiveness to ensure the transition is sustainable and growth-enhancing. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Arena, Marco, Alberto Garcia-Huitron, Bihong Huang, Daria Kolpakova, Roberto Perrelli, Alpa Shah, and Philippe Wingender, 2025. “Macro-Fiscal Impacts of Colombia’s Energy Transition Plan”. IMF Selected Issues Paper SIP/2025/145. JEL Classification Numbers: Q43, Q48, E62, F14, C67, C68 Keywords: Energy transition; renewable energy; macro-fiscal sustainability; export diversification and competitiveness; input–output linkages; computable general equilibrium (gimf). Author’s E-Mail Address: marena@imf.org; agarcia5@imf.org; bhuang@imf.org; dkolpako@ucsc.edu; rperrelli@imf.org; ashah@imf.org; pwingender@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Macro-Fiscal Impacts of Colombia’s Energy Transition Plan Colombia Prepared by Marco Arena, Alberto Garcia-Huitron, Bihong Huang, Daria Kolpakova, Roberto Perrelli, Alpa Shah and Philippe Wingender1 1 The authors would like to thank Luis Cubeddu, Ceyda Oner, Ding Ding, Rafael Portillo, Benjamin Carton, Sophia Chen, Ben Kett, and seminar participants at the Banco de La República for helpful suggestions. COLOMBIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByWestern Hemisphere Department Prepared by Ma