2026年中国经济展望：缓慢迈向低通胀

MAsia Pacific Insight2026 China Economics OutlookSlow March to LowflationManaged moderation in growth. Reflation is a slow burn, given modest easing, gradual rebalancing, and calibrated anti-involution efforts, keeping 2026 nominal GDP growth below consensus, at 4.1%. 2027 marks the turn from deflation to lowflation.Morgan Stanley Asia LimitedRobin XingChief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Jenny Zheng, CFAEconomist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 Zhipeng CaiEconomist Zhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7820 Harry ZhaoEconomist Harry.Zhao@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7229 Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2026 Extel (ex-Institutional Investor) Asia Research Survey. Request your ballot here. Exhibit 1 : Forecast summary table20242025E2026E2027EGDP Nominal %, YoY4.24.04.14.8GDP Real %, YoY5.05.04.84.6Household Consumption 5.24.64.24.4Government Consumption 0.95.15.35.5Gross Capital Formation3.22.52.51.9Goods and Service Exports15.311.18.09.1Goods and Service Imports9.46.23.35.0Contribution to GDP, pptsHousehold Consumption 2.11.81.71.7Government Consumption 0.20.80.90.9Gross Capital Formation1.31.00.90.7 Net Exports1.51.41.31.3Inflation, YoY%GDP Deflator-0.7-1.0-0.70.2CPI0.20.00.20.7Core CPI0.50.70.81.0PPI-2.2-2.7-1.8-0.2Policy7-day Reverse Repo Rate^1.501.401.301.30Augmented Fiscal Deficit#, % of GDP-11.4-12.5-13.0-13.0USD/CNY^7.307.107.056.95 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research Estimates (E) # General fiscal balance + off-budget quasi fiscal balance (including LGFV debt, net land sales revenue, and policy bank supports). ^End of Period.Growth seen moderating amid lingering deflation: We expect a managed real GDP slowdown; nominal GDP will likely stay subdued at 4.1% in 2026 amid lingering deflation, then rebound to 4.8% in 2027. The mix remains uneven: manufacturing and exports hold up, but property remains a drag. Beijing will likely stick to its “around 5%” growth target and 1% CPI goal for 2026, yet fiscal stimulus should mirror 2025 in scale and composition, with rebalancing proceeding gradually. Reflation – a slow burn: The GDP deflator will likely stay negative in 2026 before turning slightly positive in 2027, with slow narrowing of supply-demand imbalances. Anti-involution efforts should advance cautiously through market-driven consolidation. Demand recovery should be equally measured, reflecting a lingering property drag and modest rebalancing initiatives. We thus expect slow reflation, with CPI moving into lowflation and PPI turning positive in 2H27.Policy – modestly expansionary, but still supply-centric: Augmented deficit will likely widen by 0.5ppt of GDP via quasi-fiscal tools, but the official deficit might remain largely flat. Spending should stay supply-centric, focusing on tech localization and infrastructure, while rebalancing advances slowly with targeted subsidies and small social-welfare top-ups. Central government support for housing is poss