IMF-减少排放，确保能源安全：COP30的宏观经济评估（英）

Cutting Emissions, Securing Energy: A Macroeconomic Assessment for COP30 Simon Black, Dora Benedek, Ian Parry, Nate Vernon-Lin, and Sunalika Singh WP/25/245 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 NOV * “The authors would like to thank Diego Mesa Puyo for helpful comments and suggestions and Jing Han for excellent researchassistance.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/245IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department Cutting Emissions, Securing Energy: A Macroeconomic Assessment for COP30 Prepared by Simon Black, Dora Benedek, Ian Parry, Nate Vernon and Sunalika Singh* Authorized for distribution by Ruud De Mooij November 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Climate change poses significant macroeconomic challenges due to its impacts and the energy transition needed to address it. Despite the Paris Agreement’s goal to keep global warming ‘well below 2°C’, and ideally to 1.5°C, the world is not on track. Temperatures are likely to pass 1.5°C this decade and would exceed 2°C by 2050, even if national targets are met. Limiting the ‘overshoot’ in peak temperatures by cutting global emissions of greenhouse gases would reduce climate risks. But current national emissions targets fall short, aiming for a 7 percent cut compared to the 30 to 45 percent needed by 2035. Using in-house models, we illustrate options and impacts of closing gaps to align emissions with temperature goals while minimizing climate risks. However, achieving these targets implies drastic changes in the energy system. Ensuring security of energy supply, which is critical for macroeconomic stability and growth, entails effective macroeconomic policies. JEL Classification Numbers: Q31; Q35; Q38; Q48; H23 Keywords: Paris Agreement; climate mitigation; ambition gap; emissions reductions; temperature overshooting; mitigation costs; energy security; grid stability Author’s E-Mail Address: SBlack@imf.org; DBenedek@imf.org; IParry@imf.org; NVernon@imf.org; SSingh9@imf.org IMF WORKING PAPERS Cutting Emissions, Securing Energy: A Macroeconomic Assessment for COP30 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 WORKING PAPERS Cutting Emissions, Securing Energy: A Macroeconomic Assessment for COP30 Prepared by Simon Black, Dora Benedek, Ian Parry, Nate Vernon-Lin, and Sunalika Singh IMF WORKING PAPERS Cutting Emissions, Securing Energy: A Macroeconomic Assessment for COP30 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 4 Contents Executive Summary ..............................................................