投入价格对企业预期和决策的不对称和异质传递（英）

BIS Working Papers No 1305 The asymmetric and heterogeneous pass-through of input prices to firms’ expectations and decisions by Fiorella De Fiore, Marco Jacopo Lombardi and Giacomo Mangiante Monetary and Economic Department November 2025 JEL classification: D22, D84, E31, E50 Keywords: Pass-through, heterogeneous firm expectations, survey data, inflation. BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) The asymmetric and heterogeneous pass-through ofinput prices to firms’ expectations and decisions∗Fiorella De Fiore†Marco Jacopo Lombardi‡Giacomo Mangiante§October 30, 2025AbstractThis paper studies the pass-through of input price shocks to firms’ expectationsand pricing decisions using firm-level data from the Bank of Italy’s Survey on Inflationand Growth Expectations. We find a strong and asymmetric pass-through: positiveinput price shocks significantly raise firms’ price expectations, realised prices and short-term inflation expectations, while negative shocks have little impact. The pass-throughvaries systematically with firm characteristics: it is higher for upstream firms and forfirms facing greater uncertainty, adjusting prices more frequently, or operating withthinner profit margins.Macroeconomic conditions also matter: firms’ expectationsrespond more strongly to business-specific signals in periods of low inflation and toaggregate signals in periods of high inflation. Finally, we show that providing firmswith information about current inflation dampens the pass-through to inflation expec-tations, underscoring the importance of central bank communication.Keywords: Pass-through, heterogeneous firm expectations, survey data, inflation.JEL classification: D22, D84, E31, E50∗We would like to thank Saroj Bhattarai, Michele Caivano, Luca Dedola, Andrea Foschi, Isabel G¨odl-Hanisch, Stefano Neri, Fabio Parlapiano, Sara Solari, Alex Tagliabracci, Fabrizio Venditti, Roberta Zizza andparticipants to the Bank of Italy’s Monetary Economics reading group and to the Workshop on HeterogeneousMacro Expectations – New Evidence and Theory, the Conference on Monetary Policy and Heterogeneity inHouseholds, Firms, and Financial Intermediaries: Insights from Microdata, the 15th ifo Conference onMacroeconomics and Survey Data, the Bank of Finland, the BIS, the IMF, the Federal Reserve Board andthe OEC