国会预算办公室-截至2025年10月29日，三种情景下政府关门对经济影响的定量分析（英）

www.cbo.gov CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Phillip L. Swagel, Director U.S. Congress Washington, DC 20515 October 29, 2025 Honorable Jodey Arrington Chairman Committee on the Budget U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Re: A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of the Government Shutdown on the Economy Under Three Scenarios, as of October 29, 2025 Dear Mr. Chairman: You have asked the Congressional Budget Office for information about the effects on the economy of the lapse in discretionary appropriations (often called a government shutdown) that began on October 1, 2025. This letter presents estimates of the effects under three scenarios: a shutdown that ends after four weeks (on October 29), one that ends after six weeks (on November 12), and one that ends after eight weeks (on November 26).1 In CBO’s assessment, the shutdown will delay federal spending and have a negative effect on the economy that will mostly, but not entirely, reverse once the shutdown ends. The agency estimates that real gross domestic product (GDP), which has been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation, will be lower in the fourth quarter of 2025 than it would have been in the absence of a shutdown.2 Depending on its length, the government shutdown will reduce annualized real GDP growth in that quarter by 1.0 to 2.0 percentage points. After the shutdown, real GDP will be temporarily higher than it would have been otherwise. Although most of the decline in real GDP will be recovered eventually, CBO estimates that between $7 billion and $14 billion (in 2025 dollars) will not be. 1 CBO previously provided qualitative information about the effects of the government shutdown. See Congressional Budget Office, letter to the Honorable Jodey Arrington providing a qualitative analysis of the effects of the government shutdown on the economy as of October 17, 2025 (October 17, 2025), www.cbo.gov/publication/61822. 2 Unless otherwise noted, all years referred to in this letter are calendar years. Honorable Jodey Arrington Page 2 The effects of the shutdown on the economy are uncertain. Those effects depend on decisions made by the Administration throughout the shutdown. In addition, how federal employees and contractors respond to the delay in compensation is uncertain. Effects on Federal Spending During the shutdown, federal outlays will be lower than they would have been otherwise: by $33 billion in the four-week shutdown scenario, $54 billion in the six-week shutdown scenario, and $74 billion in the eight-week shutdown scenario, CBO estimates (see Table 1). Those amounts include delayed spending for employee compensation, goods and services, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). CBO expects that when appropriations resume, the spending that did not occur during the shutdown will be made up. Table 1. Near-Term Delays in Federal Spending Attributable to the Government Shutdown Under Three Scenarios Billions of dollars Data s