欧洲央行-财政拖累理论与实践：欧洲视角（英）

Working Paper Series Fiscal drag in theory and in practice: a European perspective Esteban García-Miralles, Maximilian Freier, Sara Riscado, Chrysa Leventi, Alberto Mazzon, Glenn Abela, Laura Boyd, Baiba Brusbārde, Marion Cochard, David Cornille, Emanuele Dicarlo, Ian Debattista, Mar Delgado-Téllez, Mathias Dolls, Ludmila Fadejeva, Maria Flevotomou, Florian Henne, Alena Harrer-Bachleitner, Viktor Jászberényi-Király, Max Lay, Laura Lehtonen, Mauro Mastrogiacomo, Tara McIndoe-Calder, Mathias Moser, Martin Nevicky, Andreas Peichl, Myroslav Pidkuyko, Mojca Roter, Frédérique Savignac, Andreja Strojan Kastelec, Vaidotas Tuzikas, Nikos Ventouris, Lara Wemans Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 3136 AbstractThis paper presents a comprehensive characterization of “fiscal drag”—the increase in taxrevenue that occurs when nominal tax bases grow but nominal parameters of progressive taxlegislation are not updated accordingly—across 21 European countries using a microsimu-lation approach. First, we estimate tax-to-base elasticities, showing that the progressivitybuilt in each country’s personal income tax system induces elasticities around 1.7–2 for manycountries, indicating a potential for large fiscal drag effects. We unpack these elasticities toshow stark heterogeneity in their underlying mechanisms (tax brackets or tax deductions andcredits), across income sources (labor, capital, self-employment, public benefits), and acrossthe individual income distribution. Second, we extend the analysis beyond these elastici-ties to study fiscal drag in practice between 2019 and 2023, incorporating observed incomegrowth and legislative changes. We quantify the actual impact of fiscal drag and the extentto which government policies have offset it, either through indexation or other reforms. Ourresults provide new insights into the fiscal and distributional effects of fiscal drag in Europe,as well as useful statistics for modeling public finances.JEL codes: D31, H24, E62Keywords: personal income tax, inflation, indexation, bracket creepECB Working Paper Series No 31361Non-technical summaryWhen inflation drives up wages and other incomes, taxpayers may find themselves paying highertaxes even though their real purchasing power has not increased. This effect is particularlypronounced in the case of Personal Income Taxation (PIT), a progressive tax instrument wheretax brackets, deductions, and credits are usually defined in nominal terms that are not alwaysadjusted in line with income growth. The phenomenon, commonly referred to as fiscal drag or“bracket creep”, results in additional government revenue, and it can also alter the distributionof the tax burden across different groups of taxpayers.In the European Union (EU), personal income tax remains at the discretion of each EUMember State, which can give ri