全球能源展望2025

Global Energy Perspective 2025October 2025Geopolitical uncertainty, shifting policies, and increasing demand for power are reshaping the energy landscape. This year’s report presents our updated view on what’s to come in the energy system. Contents Foreword ......................................................................................................................................... 1Executive summary ...................................................................................................................... 2Our scenarios and methodology ............................................................................................................................ 2The forces shaping energy in 2025 ....................................................................................................................... 3The 2025 energy outlook ........................................................................................................................................ 4Looking ahead ............................................................................................................................................................. 4Our scenarios and methodology ............................................................................................... 5The forces shaping energy in 2025 .......................................................................................... 9Growing global energy demand ........................................................................................................................... 10Sensitivity analysis: What if a global recession comes in 2027? ................................................................12Potential changes to GDP .......................................................................................................................................14Sensitivity analysis: What if India’s 2050 GDP per capita matches China’s current GDP per capita? ........................................................................................................15Supply chain bottlenecks ........................................................................................................................................16The 2025 energy outlook .........................................................................................................17Projected energy demand ......................................................................................................................................17Expected electrification trends .............................................................................................................................19Projected fuel demand ...........................................................................................................................................23The power mix .......................................................................................................................