Capgemini-从风险到韧性：将气候智能融入金融决策-在受气候影响的世界中重新构想金融服务（英）

From risk to resilience: Embedding climate intelligence in financial decisionsReimagining financial services in a climate-influenced worldClimate risk has moved from the headlines into the balance sheets of financial institutions. For decades, credit models and financial stress tests have helped institutions decide who to lend to, where to invest, and how to optimize their financial resources. But the next major risk factor isn’t about creditworthiness or market volatility. It’s about something even less predictable: the climate.Climate risks don’t stop at the flood, fire or drought itself. They ripple outward, disrupting supply chains, cutting off access to raw materials and delaying production. A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico doesn’t just damage property – it halts shipments of chemicals and plastics used worldwide. A drought in Latin America doesn’t just affect crops – it drives up input costs for food companies across the globe. Those downstream effects eventually land in lenders’ portfolios as increased default risk and reduced Return on Equity.Even “stable lending” – including financing sustainable operations or transition projects – carries climate risk. A borrower’s net-zero transition plan can falter if supply chains collapse, new technologies underperform or extreme weather interrupts operations. When that happens, the bank carries the default risk.Why climate risk is the new credit risk2From risk to resilience: Embedding climate intelligence in financial decisionsEvidence on the groundThe testimonies are already here. In 2022, Europe faced its worst drought in 500 years. Water levels on the Rhine dropped so low that cargo ships could only sail at 25% capacity, delaying deliveries and driving up costs across multiple industries.1 That same year, the Mississippi River ran so shallow that more than 2,000 barges were stranded until dredging crews cleared a path. The impact was an estimated $20 billion in economic damage.2 And in the American Southwest, scientists say the region is amid its driest period in 1,200 years.3For financial institutions, sustainability isn’t just about greening their own operations. It’s about understanding the climate exposures built into borrowers’ business models, supply chains, and transition plans. Climate risk has already become the new credit risk. The challenge now is measuring it quickly and accurately enough to manage it.The layers of climate riskFinancial institutions face physical and transition risks on multiple levels. It shows up in their own operations, the loans they extend, and the portfolios they manage. To make sense of it, we can think of three tiers of risk. Layer 1: The bank as an entityBanks are physical entities. Offices, data centers, and branches all sit in locations exposed to floods, heatwaves or wildfires. This is the simplest level of climate risk. If a critical facility goes offline, the disruption is real.• Best practices for modeling: These exposures can be mapped and monitored