世界经济论坛-首席经济学家展望：2025年9月（英）

Centre for the New Economy and SocietyChief Economists’ OutlookI N S I G H T R E P O R TS E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 5Images: Getty Images, UnsplashDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.© 2025 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.Executive summary1 Adapting to uncertainty Weak growth amid a disruptive new realityRegional divergence 2 Towards a new global economic order 3 Diverging pathways: growth in a fragmented global economyContributorsEndnotes455712192528Contents2Chief Economists’ Outlook SeptemberSeptember 2025Chief Economists’ OutlookThis briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society.It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy from geoeconomic and geopolitical events. The survey featured in this briefing was conducted from 30 July to 19 August 2025.Chief Economists’ Outlook September3Executive summaryThe global economy is undergoing a period of profound transformation, marked by persistent short-term disruption and heightened uncertainty as well as long-term structural change. The World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook, drawing on a survey of leading chief economists, paints a picture of resilience amid turbulence, but with growth prospects that remain subdued and risks skewed to the downside. In total, 72% of chief economists expect global economic conditions to weaken in the year ahead. Geoeconomic fragmentation is accelerating, with trade tensions at its heart. The US has imposed sweeping tariffs on a large number of economies, prompting a realignment of supply chains and a recalibration of global investment flows. The dollar’s sharp depreciation has granted emerging economies greater monetary flexibility, but also amplified the domestic impact of tariffs. Meanwhile, the rapid pace of artificial intelligence (AI) development is adding another layer of uncertainty, with most chief economists expecting the technology to become commercially disruptive within the next year, while views on labour market impacts remain divided.Regional divergence is increasingly pronounced. The US outlook