民用生物防御的物理方法-确定应对生物威胁的潜在准备措施（英）

AMAN J. PATEL, THOMAS MILTON, ANDREW GRAHAM, SAMUEL REYNOLDS, ULRIK HORN, JOHN TARANGELO, SASKIA POPESCU, GREG MCKELVEY, JR.Physical Approaches to Civilian BiodefenseIdentifying Potential Preparedness Measures for Challenging Biological ThreatsResearch ReportFor more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA4036-1.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© 2025 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, visit www.rand.org/about/publishing/permissions.RR-A4036-1iiiAbout This ReportThis research project was initiated in response to emerging evidence on three possible biological threat sce-narios that could have catastrophic effects on the United States: a fast scenario involving a rapidly spreading outbreak of a lethal human-to-human-transmissible pathogen, a silent scenario involving a pathogen that infects much of the population before infected people display visible symptoms, and a saturating scenario involving a pathogen that replicates and persists in the environment. Although these three broad scenario categories have been discussed elsewhere, the goal of this report is to better define the possibilities and limits of physical