IMF-泰国：向财政部提供技术援助的技术援助报告——动态随机一般均衡模型的开发（英）

THAILAND Technical Assistance to the Ministry of Finance – Development of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model NOVEMBER 2024 Prepared by Michal Andrle, Daniel Baksa, Mirza Gelashvili and Alberto Soler TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT Institute for Capacity Development DISCLAIMER The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International Monetary Fund to the authorities of the Fiscal Policy Office of the Ministry of Finance of Thailand (the "CD recipient") in response to their request for technical assistance. Unless the CD recipient specifically objects to such disclosure, this document (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to the IMF Executive Director for Thailand, to other IMF Executive Directors and members of their staff, as well as to other agencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff, and other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest (see Staff Operational Guidance on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). Publication or Disclosure of this report (in whole or in part) to parties outside the IMF other than agencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, World Bank staff, other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest shall require the explicit consent of the CD recipient and the IMF’s ICD department. The analysis and policy considerations expressed in this publication are those of Institute for Capacity Development. DONORS Japan IMF | Thailand Technical Assistance on Macroeconomic Frameworks| 3 Contents ACRONYMS AND ABREVATIONS ............................................................................................................. 4 PREFACE ..................................................................................................................................................... 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 7 I. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................. 8 II. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FISCAL FPAS IN THAILAND.......................................................... 11 A. Legislative Framework, Fiscal Rules and Their Oversight .................................................................... 11 B. Forecasting Toolkit and Process ........................................................................................................... 12 C. Macroeconomic Risk and Policy Analysis ............................................................................................. 15 III. PROPOSED TOOL ............................................................................................................................ 19 A. Rationale for the Adoption of a DSGE Model ..................................