欧洲央行-留在一个好地方（英）

www.ecb.europa.eu © ECB-CONFIDENTIALRemaining in a good place1Chief Economists’ meetingEuropean Investment Bank, Luxembourg, 15 September 2025Isabel SchnabelMember of the Executive Board of the ECBRubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © 2Staff projections confirm medium-term price stability as economy grows close to potentialSources: Eurostat and Eurosystem/ECB staff projections (September, June and March 2025).Notes: The vertical line indicates the start of the September 2025 projection horizon. The solid line indicates published data, while dashed lines indicate projections. The latest available data for March projections was the Q4 2024 flash, for June projections the Q1 2025 flash, and for September projections the Q2 2025 flash. The latest observations are for the second quarter of 2025 (second estimate).Euro area real GDP growthSources: Eurostat and Eurosystem/ECB staff projections (September, June and March 2025).Notes: The vertical line indicates the start of the September 2025 projection horizon. The horizontal dotted line indicates the 2% inflation medium-term target. The solid line indicates published data, while dashed lines indicate projections. The latest observation are for the second quarter of 2025.Euro area HICP inflation(quarter-on-quarter percentage changes)(annual percentage changes)-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.52021202220232024202520262027June 2025 staff projectionsSeptember 2025 staff projectionsActual0246810122021202220232024202520262027June 2025 staff projectionsSeptember 2025 staff projectionsActualRubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © 3Domestic demand has recovered robustly despite challenging global environmentReal GDP and components(year-on-year percentage changes; percentage point contributions)Source: Eurostat.Latest observations: 2025Q2.Euro area PMIs by sectors(balances)Source: S&P Global.Latest observation: August 2025.-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2202320242025Domestic demand (incl. inventories)Net exportsReal GDP growth4045505560Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25ManufacturingServicesRubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © 4Global economy still resilient, while impact of tariffs on exports remains uncertainSource: Continuous Consensus Forecasts (CCF). Notes: Chart shows the CCF on a replacement basis (continuous consensus forecasts calculated each business day between monthly survey dates on replacement basis – prior monthly survey panel with subsequent new or revised forecasts replacing old) for gross domestic product in 2025. Latest observation: 05 September 2025 (weekly data). 2025 Consensus growth forecasts(annual percentage changes)Euro area exports to the United States(annual percentage changes; 12-month cumulative sum)Source: Eurostat and ECB staff calculations.Latest observation: June 20254.24.34.44.54.64.74.84.91.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.4Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25Jul-25United StatesChina (rhs)-15-10-5051015202530Jan-19Dec-19Nov-20Oct-21Sep-22Aug-23Jul-24Jun-25Rubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © 5Impact of uncertainty on inves