国会预算办公室-国会预算办公室14张幻灯片中的当前经济观点（英）

CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 14 SlidesSeptember 2025These slides supplement information presented in Congressional Budget Office, CBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2028 (September 2025), www.cbo.gov/publication/61236. Additional notes about this slide deck and definitions of terms used in it appear at the end of the document.1GDP = gross domestic product. Growth of Real GDP2GDP = gross domestic product. Growth of Real GDP in CBO’s January 2025 and September 2025 Projections3a. Incorporates the preliminary national benchmark revision of −911,000 to total nonfarm payroll employment in March 2025 that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on September 9, 2025. To calculate the adjusted values, CBO allocated that downward revision evenly to each month from April 2024 to March 2025. The adjusted value for 2025 reflects that allocation but no changes to growth in payroll employment for later months of the year. CBO did not revise its forecast of net monthly changes in payroll employment. BLS will incorporate the final benchmark revision into its official estimates in February 2026.Payroll Employment4Unemployment Rate5Wage Growth as Measured by the Employment Cost Index for Wages and Salaries of Workers in Private Industry6Labor Force Participation7Growth of Real Residential Investment8GDP = gross domestic product. a. Reflects contributions to real GDP growth from spending by individuals, businesses, and federal, state, and local governments on goods and services that are produced abroad. All else being equal, changes in imports do not affect real GDP growth.Contributions to the Growth of Real GDP in the Near Term9Overall Inflation and Core Inflation as Measured by the PCE Price IndexPCE = personal consumption expenditures.10Interest Rates11CPI-U = consumer price index for all urban consumers; GDP = gross domestic product.Comparison of CBO’s Economic Projections With Those of the Blue Chip Forecasters12GDP = gross domestic product; SPF = Survey of Professional Forecasters.Comparison of CBO’s Economic Projections With Those in the Survey of Professional Forecasters13CPI-U = consumer price index for all urban consumers; PCE = personal consumption expenditures; SPF = Survey of Professional Forecasters.Comparison of CBO’s Inflation Projections With Those in the Survey of Professional Forecasters14GDP = gross domestic product; PCE = personal consumption expenditures.Comparison of CBO’s Economic Projections With Those of the Federal Reserve15The projections presented here reflect tariffs implemented as of August 19, 2025; other administrative actions taken as of August 28, 2025; and economic developments and laws put in place as of September 2, 2025. They also reflect CBO’s updated demographic projections, which are based on laws and policies in place as of July 31, 2025, and which do not incorporate the effects of subsequent administrative or judicial actions, including those affecting immigration.All years referred to in these