Deutsche Bank-Asia Macro Strategy Notes Bond Demand-Supply Monitor-117678201

T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaT2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on: 08/09/2025 09:42:19 GMTDistributed on: 08/09/2025 09:42:19 GMT8 September 2025Highlights from this edition of our monthly Asia bond demand-supply monitor;1. CGBs. Ultra-long dated special CGB supply should peak in September at an estimated size of RMB 235bn, easing the pressure on the back-end of the curve into Q4. We are cautious on banks' demand for short-dated CGBs given the ongoing equity rally.2. IGBs. We expect fiscal slippage from the new GST 2.0 rates should not impact IGB supply – with more bills supply – while back end demand for bonds should recover with the increase in life insurance premiums and EPF payrolls.3. IndoGB. Substantial net bond supply in 2026 will likely keep the IndoGB curve steep, while liquidity dynamics continue to benefit the front end.4. KTB. We anticipate the average monthly gross KTB supply to be KRW 21tn during September to November. Banks' demand for short-dated KTB is likely to remain strong as the deposit-loan growth gap has further widened.5. MGS. EPF and KWAP allocations to MGS & MGII have slowed likely due to rich valuations, which could help steepen the curve further.6. RPGBs. Auction cancellations are likely in Q4, which should support RPGBs. However, a hawkish BSP is a concern.7. SGS. Flushed liquidity and strong demand from banks is keeping SGS yields depressed.8. ThaiGB. FY25-26 supply in Thailand should not differ too much from FY24-25 – which coupled with strong domestic demand – should keep the ThaiGB curve flat.ChinaCGB supply peaks in September. Special CGB supply should peak this month, with RMB 996bn of the targeted 1.3tn ultra-long dated CGB already issued (77% of total). Four auctions will take place at the back end of the curve: one for 20Y, two for 30Y, and one for 50Y, with a total estimated size of 235bn. The program wraps up in October with an additional 71bn from the 30Y CGB, helping to ease pressure on the back end of the curve into Q4.Newly issued CGBs see yield gains. Three new CGBs were issued in August (3Y, 10Y, 30Y). With VAT applicable for onshore investors, the yield pick-up was significant, especially for the 10Y and 30Y CGBs, showing increases of ~6bp and Joey ChungStrategist+65-6423 8298Hazel LaiMacro Strategist+852-2203-6150Vaninder Singh, CFAMacro Strategist+65-6423 8947Perry KojodjojoStrategist+852-2203 6153Sameer GoelMacro Strategist+65-642-36973Bryant XuStrategist+65-6423 5558Deutsche Bank AG/SingaporeIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.Deutsche BankResearch Asia Fixed Income Asia Macro Strategy Notes Date Bond Demand-Supply Monitor8 September 2025Asia Macro Strategy NotesPage 2Deutsche Bank AG/Singapore12bp over existing securities. This aligns with our forecasts of an average of 7-9bp yield pick-up for the 10-30Y CGBs. Foreign investors, exempt from