Deutsche Bank-Asia Macro Strategy Notes Updating our growth trackers-117683257

T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaT2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on: 09/09/2025 00:03:14 GMTDistributed on: 09/09/2025 00:03:14 GMT9 September 2025We update our growth trackers for Asia. To recap, we track growth using three methodologies.nUsing data such as retail & car sales, IP, exports volumes, etc. to develop a monthly real economy indicator of growth, which is coincident to GDP.nIncorporating daily indicators – such as road/train traffic, vehicle sales, electricity generation, cinema attendance, shipping traffic, etc. – to catch turning points faster, and help inform our views on the relevant financial assets. See Are markets pricing growth correctly? for an example of this.nCapturing the sources of funding available for various economic activities to develop a monetary indicator of growth, which has leading properties. This builds on the realization that, for instance, there are just four sources for private consumption expenditure with differing lead/lags: (1) employment income such as wages and bonuses; (2) household credit; (3) government transfers; and (4) spending from accumulated wealth. See A framework for tracking growth for more details.We have presented our dashboards in this note and have a few observations to make.nChina. Fiscal support is still playing out with our monetary indicator – that counts the money available to spend in an economy – showing continued strength. Indeed, our daily tracking suggests the weakness in July data was a blip, and August should show a recovery. This reinforces our view to remain paid 5Y rates in China.nIndia. Our monetary indicator has slowed sharply, supporting DB Economics' view for a rate cut in October. To be sure, the real economy tracking has shown a mild improvement in August – likely in response to front-loading in August ahead of US tariff activation. However, we expect this strength to fade in short order. It is rupee pressures the are keeping us cautious on re-engaging in receiving the front-end for now, as we detailed recently.nIndonesia. The improvement in monetary indicator sits at contrast with the real economy indicator, which continues to be weak. Recovery in fiscal impulse from prior weak levels appears to be driving the monetary indicator higher but this is not showing up in real economy outcomes. In our experience tracking these indicators across Asia, this divergence is often an indication of worsening sentiment – and the recent protests in Indonesia are Vaninder Singh, CFAMacro Strategist+65-6423 8947Deutsche Bank AG/SingaporeIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.Deutsche BankResearch Asia Fixed Income Asia Macro Strategy Notes Date Updating our growth trackers9 September 2025Asia Macro Strategy NotesPage 2Deutsche Bank AG/Singaporearguably suggesting the same. We would watch out for the July data with considerable interest