全球-宏观策略-全球货币展望：咆哮的20年代——美元走强的理由

www.research.hsbc.comDisclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Play interview withDavid Bloom and Dominic BunningCurrenciesGlobalJanuary 2020By: HSBC FX StrategyCurrency OutlookRoaring ’20sThe case for a stronger USD FX markets are once more beginning the New Year with high hopes for a global reflation trade which should see the USD weaken. We believe the bigger risk for the USD is not that it weakens, but that it actually soars again. In this report we explore two routes through which this could happen. Our base case is still for a resilient to slightly stronger USD. But we cannot rule out a roaring USD in 2020 even if the market wants to write off the greenback once again.GBP – Focus on the economy GBP is set to turn cyclical again in 2020 after years of being politically driven. The removal of near-term political risk following the Conservative Party’s sizable election win paves the way for a longer-term move higher in cable towards 1.45. 1 Currencies ● Global January 2020 Roaring ’20s – The case for a stronger USD (pg 3) FX markets are once more beginning the New Year with high hopes for a global reflation trade that could see the USD weaken. We believe the bigger risk for the USD is not that it weakens, but that it actually soars again. In this report we explore two routes through which this could happen: 1) DM central banks are forced to turn even more unconventional 2) EM yields fall too low to compensate investors for the associated risk Our base case is still for a resilient to slightly stronger USD. But we cannot rule out a roaring USD in 2020 even if the market wants to write off the greenback once again. GBP – Focus on the economy (pg 15) GBP is set to turn cyclical again in 2020 after years of being politically driven. The removal of near-term political risk following the Conservative Party’s sizable election win paves the way for a longer-term move higher in cable towards 1.45. As the FX market now focuses on the economic data, any marginal and relative improvement for the UK economy is likely to be seen in a particularly positive light for GBP, especially in a world of slowing growth and lower for longer rates. Who’s the Guv’nor? (pg 16) Andrew Bailey has been appointed as the 121st Governor of the Bank of England. Mr Bailey will take over on 16 March and serve an eight-year term – his appointment suggests continuity. Summary Currencies ● Global January 2020 2 Key events Date Event 21 January BoJ rate announcement 22 January 23 January 29 January 4 February 12 February BoC rate announcement ECB rate announcement Norges Bank rate announcement Fed rate announcement RBA rate announcement RBNZ rate announcement Riksbank rate announcement Source: HSBC Central Bank policy rate forecasts (%) Last Q1 2020(f) Q4 2020(f) USD 1.50-1.75 1.50-1.75 1.50-1.75 EUR 0.00/-0.50 0.00/-0.50 0.00/-0.5